Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Sound but Investment Slowing
The national commercial real estate market will see small increases in vacancy rates for the office and industrial sectors during 2008 according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors.
The Commercial Real Estate Outlook report released last week said a record $325 billion was invested in commercial real estate in the first 10 months of 2007, up from $306.8 billion for all of 2006.
The report said the office vacancy rate is forecast to rise to 13.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008 from an estimated 12.9 percent in the current quarter.
In addition, the report stated vacancy rates in the industrial sector are projected to average 9.4 percent by the fourth quarter; vacancy rates averaged 9.4 percent during the same quarter in 2006. The retail sector should see steady growth.
Average retail rent should grow by 2.2 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2008. Retail transaction volume in the first 10 months of this year totaled $52.9 billion, exceeding the $46.9 billion for all of 2006.
The availability of Multifamily housing is expected to tighten due to the slowdown hitting the housing market. Multifamily vacancy rates are projected to average 5.4 percent in the current quarter, down from 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
“Although vacancy rates remain relatively low for all sectors,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, “vacancy rates in the retail and multifamily sectors are projected to tighten in 2008, with rents rising in all sectors.”