The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell to 47.6 in December. Not only is that the lowest rating of 2025, it’s the fourth time in six months the index was below growth neutral. November’s reading was 49.5. The index is an economic indicator for a nine-state Midwest region dependent on agriculture and manufacturing. 

Iowa exports for the first three quarters of 2025 fell 9% from the same period the previous year. 

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing economy continues to move sideways to lower with the wholesale inflation gauge moderating,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics, said in a news release. “Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports.”

Highlights include:

• Mid-America Business Conditions Index sank to its lowest level for 2025.
• The regional manufacturing sector shed jobs for the ninth straight month.
• The wholesale inflation gauge has moderated during the past several months.
• 37.5% of manufacturing supply managers oppose 2025 tariff increases.
• On average, supply managers expect wage growth of 3% over the next 12 months, or equal to inflation at the consumer level.
• Both export and import readings slumped below growth neutral.
• According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, regional manufacturing exports for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell by 5.5%.

Employment: The December employment index sank to 44.0 from 47.6 in November. December’s job reading was the ninth consecutive month that the index has fallen below growth neutral and to the lowest reading since May 2024.

Comments from supply managers in December:

• “Tariffs have increased our input costs from a minimum of 10% to 48%. The industrial economy is feeling the full impact of the tariffs.”
• “China has been aggressively mercantilist for over a dozen years. The USA and allies are in a cold and sometimes hot war with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and their allies.”
• “I understand the intent of the tariffs and agree we need to level the playing field, but some of the implementation strategies are off.”

Wholesale prices: The December price gauge was unchanged from November’s 59.8, the lowest reading of 2025, and down from 62.9 in October. 

“The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moderating at the wholesale level,” said Goss.

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the December Business Confidence Index, increased to 50.0 from 47.4 in November. 

“Concerns regarding tariffs, inflation and slowing business activity restrained supply managers’ economic expectations. Only one in six supply managers expect rising economic conditions for their firm over the next six months,” said Goss.

Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, increased slightly to 50.4 from 50.1 in November. 

“After an initial surge in inventories in quarter one of this year, due to the fear of impending tariffs, supply managers have essentially maintained inventory levels flat,” said Goss.   

Trade: Recent retaliation from higher U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions pushed new export orders, or purchases from abroad, lower for the last six months. New export orders increased to a weak 47.0 from November’s 42.7. As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 10 months. The December import index rose to 41.6 from 37.2 in November.  

Approximately, 37.5% of manufacturing supply managers reported opposing the 2025 tariff increases.

According to ITA data, the regional economy exported $69 billion of manufactured goods for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to $73.1 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 5.5% decline. In terms of export gainers, North Dakota registered the top gain with 49.9% growth. South Dakota recorded the largest reduction with an 18.4% decline in exports of manufactured goods between 2024 and 2025.  

Other survey components of the December Business Conditions Index were: new orders dropped to 42.9 from 48.3 in November; the production index increased to 47.4 from November’s 46.2; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies fell to 53.2 from November’s 55.1. Lower readings indicate speedier deliveries and/or declining supply chain disruptions or delays.  

Iowa: The state’s Business Conditions Index for December dropped to 44.6 from November’s regional high of 52.1. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 41.3; production at 45.9; delivery lead time at 49.3; employment at 38.3; and inventories at 48.0. According to the ITA, Iowa manufacturing exports for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell from $11.5 billion in 2024 to $10.5 billion in 2025 for a 9% decline.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.