Local economic experts gave their short take on this year’s economic performance ahead of the Business Record’s annual Economic Forecast event. 

The event, which provides business leaders with economic insight into the coming year as it relates to Iowa industries, will include the following panelists:

• Robin Anderson, state chief economist with the Iowa Department of Revenue.
• Debi Durham, director of the Iowa Finance Authority and Iowa Economic Development Authority.
• Amy Friedrich, president of benefits and protection, Principal Financial Group.
• Eric Lohmeier, president, NCP.
• Jeff Lorenzen, president and CEO, American Equity

The event will also feature Ann Collins, executive vice president and chief financial officer at EMC Insurance Cos., accepting the 2026 Deloitte CFO of the Year Award.

The speakers sat down with host Chris Conetzkey for an episode of the “Iowa Economy Podcast” before the event, he asked them for a quick glimpse of their projections for the year. 

Persistent pressures from ongoing issues with trade, high input costs, geopolitics, inflation and modest growth were among the themes in their responses. 

“In terms of a theme for [what] 2026 feels like, what we’re headed into is something that has some nice steady pieces to it, but there is some persistent strain,” Friedrich said. “Costs have stayed persistently inflated or persistently high, some of the economic uncertainty around some of the trade pieces that continues to sit as an underpinning. Then, certainly we can’t ignore some of the geopolitical uncertainty pieces.”

There are some signs of change, she added. 

“I’m seeing a lot of steadiness in the numbers, as well, though. I do see that there is some underlying growth there. There are pieces that feel good and steady in terms of the capabilities of the businesses themselves,” Friedrich said. 

Friedrich would advise businesses to cover their bases in 2026. 

“Steady, but strained is a good way to think about it,” she said. 

Friedrich said what she would think about in planning for 2026 would be making sure employees are taken care of, ensuring that businesses understand existing customers as keenly as they understand new customers they want to grow with. Also, she said, if a business has a differentiator in the marketplace, to lean heavily into that. 

“I think there’s enough persistent, steady conditions that are positive that if you lean into those things, you’re probably going to be setting yourselves up for a pretty good-looking 2026,” she said. 

Collins added that many Iowa businesses are insulated from economic shifts compared to states on the coasts. EMC often hears from clients who are worried about what might happen with the economy next. 

“EMC is a property and casualty insurer, and we insure hundreds of small- to medium-sized businesses within the state of Iowa. We are very, very aware of what they are feeling in the economy,” she said. “When we talk with our insureds, they’re constantly thinking about how it seems like we’re doing OK. … Inflation, geopolitical action, all those things that seem a little bit out of control for those small- to medium-sized businesses, that’s what they’re worried about.”

Anderson said economic uncertainty will continue to be a theme in 2026, making business decisions complex, as the post-pandemic economy is a new ballgame compared to previous years. 

“Uncertainty has been a key theme of the post-pandemic Iowa and U.S. economies, whether it be uncertainty surrounding interest rates and inflation, commodity prices, asset prices, labor markets and more recently, trade policy,” she said. “In addition, the post-pandemic economy looks very different than the pre-pandemic economy, adding complexity to the decision-making processes for businesses.”

After the financial crisis of 2008, the economy had low inflation, low interest rates and sluggish consumer demand. 

“The post-pandemic economy has been surrounded by high interest rates, high inflation and strong consumer demand,” she said. “Digging into some of these uncertainties, interest rates matter for agriculture, financial services, among other considerations. Trade policy matters for suppliers, manufacturers, retailers and more. Uncertainty around farm policy and commodity prices matters for the agriculture sector, along with all the sectors connected with agriculture within the state and uncertainty around labor market trends matters for a broad range of businesses.”

That uncertainty could lead to delays in business investments, she said. 

“Uncertainty is going to be here for 2026 and businesses must consider a broad range of scenarios in their decision-making processes,” Anderson said. 

On the state side, while sales tax collections are strong, corporate income tax revenues are weaker. 

“What we saw this fiscal year is, in fact, pretty strong sales tax revenue, which suggests to me that perhaps people are pulling forward a little bit of those buying decision-making processes to get ahead of tariffs,” Anderson said. “In addition, we’re seeing some challenges with corporate income tax tax revenues in part because of what happened with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. We’ve got several policy decisions actually at the federal level that are potentially driving some of the revenue that we see coming into the state.”

Panelists said they would be watching the agricultural and manufacturing industries, hoping for some improvements after years of challenges. 

“The ag economy seems to be bouncing around the bottom; I don’t think it’s regressing,” Lohmeier said. “That’s a net positive, because I think it would be very hard for large producers to make long-term [capital expenditures], long-term expansion decisions in an environment where a different trade scenario or tariff scenario could happen literally overnight in a tweet. 

“It’s going to be a net positive for that base economy of Iowa and potentially the greater Midwest, where you’ve got replacement parts, you’ve got services, when you’re suffering financially. You’re probably behind on your maintenance, so you’ve got a lot of deferred maintenance. Our projection is you’re actually going to see slight growth. We think manufacturing will probably see marginal growth.”

Lohmeier said water quality and high cancer rates are now economic issues for Iowa and business leaders. 

“I don’t think either side of the political spectrum really wants to dive into that issue or talk about that issue much, but what I do think is you’re going to see a population that’s very concerned about that issue, more so than the next tax decrease, or the next research and development credit. … I think if I was on a business side of it, and I was running that show, I think that this might be a year to hide back into the shadows and not necessarily overreach or grab the additional tax cuts or deregulation, and listen to what I do feel [are] going to be some very large issues that aren’t necessarily just ‘business driven’ that could bring a lot of noise, as far as the business climate in Iowa. ”

Overall, panelists do not expect the big policy swings of 2025, but instead, slower, steadier conditions. They encourage businesses to prepare for multiple scenarios as uncertainty will likely remain throughout the year.