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Economics is the subject, and we’re being tested

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At one point in a low-key economic panel discussion last week at Drake University, you could hear the distinctive thump of worldviews colliding.

David Maahs, executive vice president of the Greater Des Moines Partnership, advanced the theory that high gasoline prices put more emphasis on the development and use of biofuels. He didn’t say, “Hooray for $4 gas!” or anything like that, so don’t hunt him down. He was just pointing out that sometimes Americans need a little motivation. We tend to stay on the couch until we hear the pizza delivery guy at the front door.

However, Iowa Department of Economic Development Director Michael Tramontina responded by calling current gas prices “an unmitigated disaster for consumers” and noted that the money we’re spending is going to places such as Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. “It isn’t rolling around in our economy,” he said.

They both have a point. And if an academic economist had been there in Old Main’s Levitt Hall, it would have been the ideal moment for an “On the third hand …” kind of statement. Something about the M-1 money supply as it correlates with foreign investment demand, or at least a reminder to keep your tires properly inflated.

Economics is a tough subject in the calmest of times; my college econ professor told us he used the same questions on the tests every year, but different answers were correct. Now that world-class financial issues are becoming a topic of everyday conversation, the pressure is really mounting. You almost feel as if you should actually understand what you’re talking about.

Unfortunately, interpreting economic statistics is as tricky as calculating National Football League quarterback ratings. At the least, you can find two ways to size up any situation, and some of that showed up at Drake.

Take interest rates, for example. “For everybody who’s happy about low interest rates,” said Jim Schipper, chairman of the Iowa Bankers Association board of directors, “there are just as many who are unhappy because they’re living on their CDs and money market accounts.”

Or take property taxes. Predictably, the panel singled out commercial property tax rates as a brake on development in Iowa. Then Tramontina pointed out that Central Iowa gained 65,000 people from 2000 to 2007. The logical conclusion? There may not be a lot of people who are dumb enough to opt for outrageously high property taxes, but most of them are moving here to do business. Must be the scenery.

Then there’s something as simple as pay scales. Tramontina noted Iowa’s status as a low-wage state and said, “If we’re going to grow the work force, wages are going to need to be higher so we can compete.”

Higher wages sound wonderful, but isn’t it faintly possible that low wages are one factor inducing companies to move here from the coasts or keep their headquarters here? They always tell us it’s because we’re so darned affable – Iowans are the beagle puppies of American demographics – and because we have a work ethic that would put volunteer coal miners to shame. But you know those business people. Lots of times they’re thinking about the bottom line.

As a friend who grew up in Boston once put it, the great thing about doing business with Iowans is that we’re “easy pickings.”

The panel also discussed the imminent checks from the federal government – the economic stimulus money that’s intended to turn this supertanker around before we strike the reef. Everybody likes to receive a check, so this topic brought out just mildly divergent viewpoints.

Moderator Chris Dorsey, bureau chief of event co-sponsor IowaPolitics.com, said he just might use his windfall for a new set of Callaway golf clubs.

But Tramontina wasn’t satisfied with that idea. Buy a supply of meat and fill up your home freezer, he suggested. That will help Iowa farmers and the state’s economy.

Then the panel ended and it was back to the everyday world. A place where millions of Americans make financial decisions every minute without a single economic theory in their heads and only a shaky grasp of basic arithmetic. Most of the time, amazingly enough, it works out OK. But not always.