The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased to 105.5 in April from 105.6 in March.

During the six-month span through April, the index decreased 0.1%, an annualized rate of minus-0.1%, meaning the long-term metric stayed above contractionary signals for a second month in a row. The six-month diffusion index increased to 37.5 in April from 25.0 in March, remaining in contractionary signals for the 16th consecutive month.

When a six-month annualized decline in the index of at least 2% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0 occur together, it’s considered a signal of a coming contraction.

The monthly diffusion index decreased to 37.5 in April from a revised 43.8 in March. A diffusion index measures the proportion of components rising in a given time period. Components are assigned values based on how they increased or decreased over the time period, and the assigned values for all the components are then added together.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.12% increase in April.

Three of the eight components increased month over month in April: The national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index and average manufacturing hours. Diesel fuel consumption, the agricultural futures profit index, average weekly unemployment claims, the new orders index and residential building permits detracted from the index.

In April, the yield spread remained in inversion territory (below zero) at minus-0.90%, up from minus-1.26% in March. April is the 18th month in a row that the yield spread has been in inversion. The long-term rate increased 33 basis points while the short-term rate decreased by 3 basis points.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours increased to 39.81 in April from 39.76 in March. In April, average hours were 39.9, just under an hour below the historical monthly average.

During April, 14 of the 28 Iowa-based or Iowa-concentrated publicly traded companies gained value, and three of the 10 financial-sector companies increased. With nearly half of the stocks experiencing gains, the stock market index increased to 139.2 in April from 131.6 in March.

Residential building permits were 894 in April, down from 924 last year. The 12-month moving average decreased to 908 in April from 911 in March. April 2024 permits were 3.3% below April 2023, and 27.0% below the monthly historical average.

The new orders index in April increased to 59.3 from 48.5 in March. However, the 12-month moving average of the new orders index has decreased to 48.9, from 49.1 in March.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims increased to 2,416 in April, from 2,377 in March. Unemployment claims were 32.0% above April 2023 claims, yet 47.5% below average historical claims for April.

During April, the agricultural futures profit index saw expected profit decreases in crop commodities and livestock commodities. Compared with last year, new crop corn prices were 15.4% lower while soybean prices were 9.7% lower. The April crush margin for cattle decreased 10.7% from March while the crush margin for hogs decreased 1.9%.

Diesel fuel consumption decreased 11.8% between April 2023 and April 2024. The 12-month moving average decreased to 64.84 million gallons in April from 65.57 million in March.

The full report is available online.