The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased to 106.4 in March 2021 from 105 in February. March is the eighth month in a row that the index has increased since the COVID-19 crisis began in Iowa a year ago; the index had decreased as much as 3% from March to June in 2020 before gradually improving for eight of the next nine months.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.33% decline in March 2021. In a six-month span ending in March, the Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased to 2.9%, an annualized rate of 5.7%. The six-month diffusion index increased to 87.5 in March from 75 in February.

All eight components of the Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased in March: average weekly unemployment claims (inverted), residential building permits, the new orders index, the agricultural futures profits index, the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index, diesel fuel consumption and average manufacturing hours.

Average weekly unemployment claims for March 2021 contributed 0.44 to the Iowa Leading Indicators Index value. The 12-month moving average of claims decreased from 10,833 to 8,783. Unemployment claims for the month were 87.8% below March 2020 claims. Residential building permits recorded at 1,830, higher than the 979 seen in March 2020.

The monthly value of the new orders index increased to 74.5 compared with 39.2 seen one year ago. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index increased to 65.4 from 62.4 in February.

In the agricultural futures profits index, new crop corn prices were 27.7% higher, while soybean prices were 39.9% higher. The March crush margin for hogs increased 13.3% from February, while the crush margin for cattle increased 7.4%.

The yield spread expanded to 1.6% from 1.2% in February. The long-term rate increased 35 basis points while the short-term rate decreased 1 basis point. In the Iowa stock market index, 25 of the 31 companies gained value, and all of the 11 financial-sector companies increased. The index increased to 116.27 in March from 108.11 in February.

Diesel fuel consumption in March increased 4.2% from a year earlier; the 12-month moving average increased to 63.82 million gallons from 63.63 million in February. The average weekly manufacturing hours in March 2021 were 40.4, above the 40.3 hours in March 2020, and more than a half hour below the monthly average from 1996 to 2020.

The full report is available online.