Diesel fuel consumption, the agricultural futures profits index, the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index, the new orders index and initial unemployment insurance claims all contributed positively to the Iowa Leading Indicators Index in January, helping push the index up 0.3%.

The index increased to 108.0 in January from 107.7 in December. The monthly diffusion index rose to 87.5 from a revised 68.8 the previous month.

Data limitations related to the federal government shutdown affected components typically included in the index, including average manufacturing hours and housing date. Those components were neutralized until the data are released and can be included in revisions.

The index was constructed to signal economic turning points with two key metrics that when seen together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0.

Over the past six months, each of the six available component indicators increased more than 0.05%. Those components include the AFPI, diesel fuel consumption, the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index, the new orders index and initial unemployment insurance claims.

Diesel fuel consumption was the largest contributor to the index in January. Based on a 12-month moving average, diesel use increased 7.9% from January 2025 to January 2026, rising to 65.98 million gallons from 65.62 million gallons in December 2025.

Diesel fuel consumption and the new orders index shifted from detractors in December to contributors in January.

Average manufacturing hours and residential building permits each contributed 0.0 to the index because the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau have not yet released January employment and housing data due to the federal government shutdown.

The full reports are available on the Iowa Department of Revenue website.