The Iowa Department of Revenue has released its Iowa Leading Indicators Index, which increased 0.1% to 107.8 in September from 107.7 in August. 

The federal government shutdown has affected the release of employment and housing data used in the index. The September 2025 index uses available data and any data not available is presented as neutral. Once the information becomes available, the Department of Revenue will add it to the index through retroactive revisions. 

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index was constructed to signal economic turning points with two key metrics that when seen together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0. For the first month since April 2010, all of the eight component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the last half-year. However, data for two components (average weekly manufacturing hours and residential building permits) have yet to be released and could yet negatively affect this diffusion index.

• The monthly diffusion index decreased to 62.5 in September from 81.3 in August. 
• New orders index was the strongest positive contributor to the index in September. Changes are calculated based on a 12-month moving average. In September, the new orders index increased to 50.5 from 50.3 in August. Likewise, the 12-month moving average of the new orders index increased to 49.4 from 48.6 in August.
• The Agricultural Futures Profits Index was the strongest detractor to the index in September, when expected profits increased in corn and soybean and hog commodities, however cattle and hog commodities experienced an expected profit decrease. Compared to last year, new crop corn and soybean prices were 2.9% higher. The September crush margin for cattle decreased 38% from August while the crush margin for hogs decreased 0.4% from August.

For September, average weekly manufacturing hours and residential building permits contributed 0.0 to the index as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau have not yet released employment or housing data due to the federal government shutdown.

Employment: The 12-month moving average of weekly unemployment insurance claims declined from 2,544 to 2,483. Unemployment claims were 34.8% below September 2024 claims, and 44.8% below average historical claims for September (1988-2024).  

Iowa stock market index: During September, only nine of the 27 publicly traded, Iowa-based companies gained value, and only one of the nine financial-sector companies increased in value. Despite the number of stocks experiencing losses, the index increased to 168.25 in September from 166.10 in August due to strong gains by Lumen Technologies’ stock (CenturyLink), contributing 0.02 to the index. 

Diesel fuel consumption: Diesel fuel consumption decreased 0.6% between September 2024 and September 2025. The 12-month moving average decreased to 65.78 million gallons in September from 65.82 million in August, detracting 0.01 from the index value.