Yield spread, the agricultural future profits index (AFPI), the Iowa Stock Market Index and average weekly unemployment insurance claims were positive contributors in the most recent Iowa Leading Indicators Index, helping lift the index 0.2%. 

Diesel fuel consumption, the new orders index and average weekly manufacturing hours were detractors from the index, while residential building permits were unrecorded again because federal shutdown-related delays have kept housing data from being released. November and December 2024 data are being used to neutralize the component’s impact until the missing data are released.

Released Thursday, the index for December improved to 107.8 from 107.6 in November. The monthly diffusion index fell to 62.5 from 68.8 in November.

During the six-month span through December 2025,  the index increased 0.3% (an annualized rate of 0.5%). The six-month diffusion index decreased to 57.1 from a revised 71.4 in November. The diffusion index was modified to reflect seven available components because residential building permits data remain unreleased.

The index was constructed to signal economic turning points with two key metrics that when seen together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0.

Four of the component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the last half-year: the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index, the new orders index and initial unemployment insurance claims (inverted). The AFPI, average manufacturing hours and diesel fuel consumption decreased by more than 0.05% over the last six months.

Yield spread contributed 0.11 to the index in December, rising to 0.46% from 0.15% in November. The long-term rate increased 5 basis points, while the short-term rate decreased 26 basis points.

The AFPI in December showed expected profits increased in corn, soybeans and hogs, while cattle expected profits declined. Compared with last year, new-crop corn prices were 3.7% higher and soybean prices were 9.0% higher. The cattle crush margin fell 27.4% from November; the hog crush margin increased 7.6%.

The Iowa Stock Market Index increased to 178.14 in December from 171.04 in November. Nineteen of the 27 companies posted gains and eight of nine financial-sector companies increased in value.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims fell to 2,342 from 2,423. Claims were 17.6% below December 2024 and 30.75% below the historical average for December.

The new orders index’s 12-month moving average decreased to 48.7 from 49.0 in November, and the monthly index dropped to 41.3 from 48.8.

Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest detractor, subtracting -0.12. Diesel consumption was down 8.5% from December 2024 to December 2025, and the 12-month moving average decreased to 65.62 million gallons from 66.10 million gallons in November.

The full report is available on the Iowa Department of Revenue website.