Diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa stock market index and new orders shifted from negative to positive in the most recent Iowa Leading Indicators Index, increasing the index’s performance 0.1%. The agricultural futures profits index, or AFPI, was the biggest detractor. 

Released Jan. 9, the index for November improved to 107.6 from October’s revised 107.5. 

Six of the eight component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the last half-year: The national yield spread, diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa Stock Market index, new orders index, initial unemployment insurance claims and residential building permits. The agricultural futures profits index and average manufacturing hours decreased by more than 0.05% over the last six months.

In November, the monthly diffusion index increased to 68.8 in November from 31.3 in October. 

Highlights include:

• Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest positive contributor to the index in November. Diesel fuel consumption increased 7.5% between November 2024 and November 2025. The 12-month moving average increased to 66.10 million gallons in November from 65.62 million in October.
• For November, diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa Stock Market Index, and the new orders index went from detractors to positive contributors to the index. Residential building permits again contributed 0.0 to the index as the U.S. Census Bureau has not yet released housing data due to the recent federal government shutdown.
• The AFPI was the strongest detractor to the index in November. Overall, the November AFPI came in at -0.08 due to a fall in hog profits, while crop profits were improved but weak or at negative levels; soybeans profits were at -93.0. During November, expected profits increased in corn, soybean and cattle, however hog commodities experienced an expected profit decrease. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 1.7% higher and soybean prices were also 10.9% higher. The November crush margin for cattle increased 160.2% from October while the crush margin for hogs decreased 10.9% from October.

The federal government shutdown has affected the release of housing data used in the index, therefore the November 2025 index will present economic analysis based upon available components and neutralize the as yet unavailable component. When the September, October and November data become available retroactive revisions will be included in the index’s historical data.

The index was constructed to signal economic turning points with two key metrics that when seen together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0. 

The full index is available on the Iowa Department of Revenue website.