Local housing market slow, stable
.floatimg-left-hort { float:left; } .floatimg-left-caption-hort { float:left; margin-bottom:10px; width:300px; margin-right:10px; clear:left;} .floatimg-left-vert { float:left; margin-top:10px; margin-right:15px; width:200px;} .floatimg-left-caption-vert { float:left; margin-right:10px; margin-bottom:10px; font-size: 12px; width:200px;} .floatimg-right-hort { float:right; margin-top:10px; margin-left:10px; margin-bottom:10px; width: 300px;} .floatimg-right-caption-hort { float:left; margin-right:10px; margin-bottom:10px; width: 300px; font-size: 12px; } .floatimg-right-vert { float:right; margin-top:10px; margin-left:10px; margin-bottom:10px; width: 200px;} .floatimg-right-caption-vert { float:left; margin-right:10px; margin-bottom:10px; width: 200px; font-size: 12px; } .floatimgright-sidebar { float:right; margin-top:10px; margin-left:10px; margin-bottom:10px; width: 200px; border-top-style: double; border-top-color: black; border-bottom-style: double; border-bottom-color: black;} .floatimgright-sidebar p { line-height: 115%; text-indent: 10px; } .floatimgright-sidebar h4 { font-variant:small-caps; } .pullquote { float:right; margin-top:10px; margin-left:10px; margin-bottom:10px; width: 150px; background: url(http://www.dmbusinessdaily.com/DAILY/editorial/extras/closequote.gif) no-repeat bottom right !important ; line-height: 150%; font-size: 125%; border-top: 1px solid; border-bottom: 1px solid;} .floatvidleft { float:left; margin-bottom:10px; width:325px; margin-right:10px; clear:left;} .floatvidright { float:right; margin-bottom:10px; width:325px; margin-right:10px; clear:left;}
Recent events in the housing and financial markets have converged to create a stressful environment for many homeowners. Regardless of occupation, everyone has a stake in the housing market and the future course of housing values. So, residents of Des Moines have been fortunate to avoid the severe housing recession experienced in other parts of the country.
Nevertheless, we’ve not been immune to many of the effects: A few home builders overextending themselves, rising foreclosures and a constant barrage of negative media stories combined with the recent economic meltdown have created the perception of a reeling real estate market.
So what really is the true state of the Des Moines housing market? Let’s look at a few key statistics to help us determine its overall health:
The number of houses for sale in the Des Moines market declined for six straight months to a three-year low of 5,806 listings in November. This is a drop of 15 percent from November 2007 and contravenes the typical trend of inventory increasing as we head into the fall. I ascribe this downward trend to two factors: (1) new construction has slowed considerably, and (2) a concern about current market conditions has prompted many sellers to remain on the sidelines.
The number of November pending sales was 425, down 25 percent from last year. Although certainly no reason to panic, it is a barometer of the current state of the market because it identifies the number of homes sold within the past 30 days.
The “average days on market” figure has steadily increased over the past three years from 81 days in 2006 to 86 in 2007 to 96 so far in 2008. Meaning on average it does take longer to sell a home right now.
The average sale price has remained steady over the past three years, stabilizing between $168,000 and $169,000. This is obviously both good and bad – home values are not declining, but they’re also not appreciating. If you bought your home less than five years ago and need to sell, don’t expect an enormous jump in price from what you paid.
Overall, these data suggest we’re still in a stable albeit slow market. A key factor to watch will be what prices do in the first quarter of 2009. A few preliminary indications have begun to point to an overall price decline. However, if prices do remain constant, we should expect to maintain our stable market. I expect sales to remain sluggish until we see how the current bailout manifests itself, but the trend of seeing inventory decline should actually spur a quicker turnaround. As supply finally begins to balance out with demand, we should once again begin to see a growing market.
For now, we must remain content that we have, at least thus far, evaded the dire catastrophe experienced by other real estate markets across the country.
Ted Weaver is a Realtor at Prudential First Realty in West Des Moines.