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Marsh climbing back from Spitzer’s assault

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Dear Mr. Berko:

I bought 400 shares of Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc. stock at $55 per share just before Eliot Spitzer began his investigation. It’s now 25 points lower. Should I sell the stock or hold it? I also bought 100 shares of Garmin that you recommended in mid-2005 at $20. I now have 200 shares because it split, and it’s now $56. Should I sell or hold?

F.K., Syracuse, N.Y.


Dear F.K.:

One of the faults of our political process is that a nerd like Eliot Spitzer can propel himself to the governor’s office by destroying a public company and injuring its shareholders. Marsh & McLennan was guilty as sin when it conspired to fix prices. So why not jail the responsible executives, rather than crush the company with a huge fine and destroy shareholder value?

Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc. (MMC-$30.15) had a solid year in 2006, with earnings of $1.54 a share, and should have another solid year in 2007, with projected per-share earnings of $1.82. But thanks to the political ambitions of your new governor, MMC shares are down 25 points since Spitzer fired his first salvo and crippled the market value of thousands of MMC employees’ retirement plans.

But hold on to those shares, because I believe they will return to prominence. Earnings for 2007 are expected to improve by 20 percent. New management expects to complete a restructuring program that should generate about $350 million (65 cents a share) in cost savings by 2008. Its Mercer Group (human resources and management consulting) is rebounding well. The Putnam Group (investment management and mutual funds) now has more than $200 billion under management. The Kroll Group (risk consulting and technology platforms) has margins exceeding 15 percent. Guy Carpenter (a leading risk and reinsurance specialist) is reclaiming its momentum, and the Marsh division is still the world’s largest insurance broker.

Meanwhile, net profit margins are returning to pre-Spitzer levels, and so are returns on capital and shareholders’ equity. If you have a couple more years of patience, you should be able to get between $55 and $60 per share.

I did not recommend Garmin in my column, but I wish I had.

I bought a 2006 General Motors sport utility vehicle and it came equipped with a navigation system that is so bloody complicated I doubt Bill Gates, Steve Jobs or Larry Ellison can figure out how to operate it. Several months ago, I rented a Hummer with a navigation system, and my son, who can align Rubik’s cubes blindfolded, couldn’t figure out how to work that piece of junk. So I bebopped to Best Buy and bought a Garmin Ltd. (GRMN-$55.77) model for $550, plopped it on my dashboard, and the darn thing is so simple to operate that I can locate hidden treasure with two simple command inputs.

Garmin is a leader in the global positioning industry and offers a wide range of easy-to-understand, simple-to-operate consumer and commercial navigation devices. Merrill took GRMN public (it’s actually a Taiwanese company) in mid-2004 at $14. It ran up to $108 last year and split 2-for-1. Several investment houses say it can move up to the $80-$90 level in the next couple of years.

The public’s fascination with its navigation/communication devices almost ensures that revenues will double from $1.6 billion last year to $3 billion by 2011. The company has zero debt, net profit margins of 28 percent, and plans to introduce more than 70 new navigation/communication products this year.

If European and Asian consumers become as nutty over this technology as Americans have, GRMN’s revenues and earnings could really explode.

But I think revenue and earnings growth are beginning to slow, and other companies are producing equivalent products at lower prices. Sell 100 shares of GRMN and keep 100 shares.