The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index dropped from 56.0 in April to 54.4 but remained above growth neutral for the fourth straight month. The index, which tracks business conditions across a nine-state region including Iowa, points to improving growth in manufacturing and the overall economy.

The index ranges between 0 and 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing sector continues to improve, albeit slowly, with manufacturing job losses for the month and escalating wholesale inflation,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics, said in a news release. 

In Iowa, the state’s index for May increased to 51.8 from 51.0 in April. Iowa ranked seventh in the nine-state region, with Minnesota recording a regional-high 56.4 and Missouri a regional-low 50.0. 

New orders in Iowa dropped to 51.4 from 55.0 the previous month, and production declined to 52.5 from 52.8. Iowa’s delivery lead time, however, improved to 59.9 from 58.1.

The overall regional employment index slipped to 47.0 from 50.2 in April. “Much like the national ISM manufacturing job index, the regional manufacturing job market remains weak,” Goss said. “However, only 1 in 15 firms reported layoffs during the month.”

Over the past 12 months, the region’s manufacturing sector shed about 17,500 jobs, while the country lost about 75,000 manufacturing jobs during the same period of time, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Iowa, Missouri and Nebraska accounted for about 83.3% of the manufacturing jobs lost in the past 12 months.

In Iowa, the employment index dropped to 44.8 from 45.2 in April. 

The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, rose to 52.0 from 49.0 in April. Inventories in Iowa were at 50.2, up from 44.0 in April. 

The May price gauge climbed to 81.7, its highest level since July 2022, and was up from 75.6 in April.

“The Creighton regional price gauge and the national ISM wholesale price index are elevated and undermine any chance of rate cuts at the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s next meetings on June 16-17, and for the remainder of 2026,” Goss said.

The April confidence index increased to 42.3 from 36.7 in April.

“I expect rising energy prices, along with supply chain disruptions, to push the confidence index even lower in the coming months,” Goss said.

New export orders sank to 47.4 from 49.6 in April. As a result of supply bottlenecks and higher input prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 12 months. The May import index increased to 45.9 from 44.6 in April.

Other regional survey components included new orders declining to 55.5 from 60.0 in April and the production index dropping to 53.8 from 57.8. Speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies improved to 63.9 from 63.1 in April. 

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.