The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell below growth neutral for the fourth time in the past five months. The index, an economic indicator for a nine-state region including Iowa, was 49.6, up from 47.6 in December. 

The index ranges between 0 and 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing economy continues to move sideways to lower with the wholesale inflation gauge moderating,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics, said in a news release. 

In Iowa, the state’s index for January increased to 49.1 from December’s 44.6. Iowa ranked sixth among the nine-state region, with Missouri recording a regional-high 57.9 and Nebraska a regional-low 44.6. 

New orders in Iowa rose to 51.4 from 41.3 in December and 48.8 in November. Production increased to 48.0 from 45.9 in December but remained lower than November’s 50.9. Iowa’s delivery lead time was at 51.8, following 49.3 in December and 57.7 in November. 

The overall regional employment index improved to 47.2 in January from December’s 44.0, marking the 10th consecutive month the index has fallen below growth neutral. About 13% of supply managers reported that tariffs have resulted in job losses for their firm, according to the report. 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data show that the nine-state region has lost more than 333,000 manufacturing jobs, or about 20% of its manufacturing employment base, over the past 25 years.

In Iowa, the employment index rose to 44.3 from 38.3 in December but remained lower than November’s 50.2.

The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, dropped to 45.5 from 50.4 in December. Inventories in Iowa were at 50.1, following 48.0 in December and 52.7 in November. 

According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy exported $76.7 billion of manufactured goods for the first 10 months of 2025, compared with $80.9 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 5.2% decline. Iowa manufacturing exports for the first 10 months of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, fell from $12.7 billion in 2024 to $11.6 billion in 2025, for an 8.4% decline.

The January price gauge dropped to 58.2 from December’s 59.8. “The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moderating at the wholesale level,” Goss said.

The January confidence index increased to 59.3, its highest level in 12 months and up from 50.0 in December.

New export orders fell to 45.4 from 47.0 in December. As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 11 months, according to the report. The January import index dropped to 38.2 from 41.6 in December.  

Other regional survey components included new orders improving to 48.8 from 42.9 in December; the production index rising to 52.1 from December’s 47.4, and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies increasing to 54.4 from December’s 53.2. 

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.