The latest economic indicator out of Creighton University is up slightly, while manufacturing jobs are down and supply managers’ sentiment on trade is shifting away from the patient, wait-and-see approach. 

Supply managers’ comments in the October Mid-America Manufacturing Index differed from the sentiments expressed by bank CEOs in Creighton’s Rural Mainstreet Index for October, where seven out of 10 agreed with the administration’s trade policies. 

Today’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index, an economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved slightly above growth neutral in October. It’s the second time in the past four months the index rose above growth neutral.  

The Business Conditions Index, which uses the same methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, rose to 50.5 from 49.8 in September.  

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing economy continues to move essentially sideways with elevated wholesale inflation,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics in the Heider College of Business, stated in a press release. “Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports along with higher prices for imported goods.”

October highlights include:

• The regional manufacturing sector shed jobs for the seventh straight month.
• For the week ending on Oct. 18, the insured unemployment rate for the region stood at 0.7%, compared to 0.6% for the same period in 2024.
• On average, supply managers reported that tariffs had increased the prices of inputs that their firm purchased by 7.9% in 2025.
• 53% of supply managers who purchased inputs from abroad indicated that they had re-shored a portion of purchases from abroad.
• In the October survey, only 35% of supply managers agreed with President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

Employment: The October employment index increased to a frail 46.9 from 44.9 in September, marking the seventh consecutive month below the growth-neutral threshold of 50.0. “Approximately, 16% of supply managers indicated that their firm laid off workers in October,” Goss stated.

While data are not available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment data based on workers receiving unemployment insurance at the state level are available. For the week ending on Oct. 18, the insured unemployment rate for the region stood at 0.7%, compared to 0.6% for the same period in 2024.

Trade: Recent retaliation from higher U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions pushed new export orders or purchases from abroad lower for the last six months. New export orders sank to 40.8 from 43.4 in September. As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last eight months. The October import index slumped to 34.0 from 34.8 in September. 

Comments from supply managers in October:

In the October survey, only 35% of supply managers said they agreed with Trump’s tariff policy. “While I think some of the tariffs were probably justified, the process in which they were implemented was haphazard at best.” 

“What the Trump administration is doing today will have positive long-term impacts on the U.S. economy and whether the U.S. will have a future as the leader of the free world.”

“Extremely complex tariffs are all over the map and changing all the time.”

“We are not agreeing to tariff clauses in supplier contracts that allow suppliers to increase prices. Price increases are to be negotiated on reasonable, timely and transparent clearly defined terms.”

“Last year’s butter price at the CME averaged $2.87 a pound and topped out at $3.18 the first week of September that year. This week’s average is $1.63. The issue is dairy commodities are down, but the retail price at the store is still priced at a $3 butter market, almost double what it should be.”

“Waiting to see how the tariffs actually affect our business. Too many uncertainties.”

“We enjoyed getting stuck with product on the water and the tariff changing from the time the shipment left port to the time it cleared customs, costing us $10,000’s. Nobody in their right mind could think that is an acceptable approach to applying tariffs.”

“Tariffs have impacted how our business operates internationally. Products that used to be processed in our U.S. facility are now being produced elsewhere to supply the rest of the world.”

Wholesale prices: The October price gauge declined slightly to 62.9 from 64.1 in September. “The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are elevated at the wholesale level. However, due to slowing regional and U.S. economies, I expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next meetings on Dec. 9-10,” Goss said

On average, supply managers reported that tariffs had increased the prices of inputs that their firm purchased by 7.9% in 2025.

As stated by one supply manager, “On non-strategic sources, suppliers are passing through tariff increases.”

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism as captured by the October Business Confidence Index, increased to a frail 42.2, up from 38.2 in September. 

“Concerns regarding tariffs, inflation and slowing business activity restrained supply managers’ economic expectations. Only 21.1% of supply managers expect rising economic conditions for their firm over the next six months,” Goss said

Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, climbed to 50.3 from 48.6 in September. “To offset potential rising future tariffs, supply managers expanded inventories this month,” Goss said. 

Roughly 53% of supply managers who purchased inputs internationally indicated that they had re-shored a portion of purchases from abroad. 

Other survey components of the October Business Conditions Index were: new orders fell to 48.4 from 51.4 in September; the production index declined to 49.8 from September’s 50.4; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies climbed to 57.9 from 53.7 in September. Higher readings indicate slower deliveries and/or rising supply chain disruptions or delays. 

For Iowa, the state’s Business Conditions Index for October fell to 46.7 from 47.4 in September. Components of the overall October index were: new orders at 44.5; production at 46.0; delivery lead time at 43.2; employment at 43.1; and inventories at 46.5. According to the latest published U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the state’s involuntary layoff rate for July 2025 was 1.0%, unchanged from 1.0% for July 2024.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota. The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM. For historical data and forecasts, visit: www.creighton.edu/economicoutlook.