Producer prices plunge to record low
Prices paid to U.S. producers plunged 2.8 percent in October, the largest decline on record, Bloomberg reported.
The decline, which was larger than forecast, followed a 0.4 percent decrease in September, the Labor Department said. However, when looking solely at core producer prices – those that exclude food and fuel – the Producer Price Index increased slightly by 0.4 percent. This illustrates that declines in raw material costs have yet to have a ripple effect on other prices.
Furthermore, other countries are experiencing similar economic threats such as the United Kingdom, whose government just released a report showing Britain’s inflation rate fell the most in at least 11 years, indicating a rising risk of deflation.
“Fuel prices are falling like a stone and will continue to drop,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, whose PPI decline estimate was 2.5 percent. “The drop in consumer spending is going to cause a ripple effect all along the supply chain in disinflationary pressures, if not deflationary pressures.”
This year’s forecast is starkly different than a year ago, when prices paid to U.S. producers rose 5.2 percent, after an 8.7 percent gain in the 12 months ended September. And core producer prices a year ago increased by 4.4 percent, the most since 1989.
“This is as bad as we have seen it in our lifetimes,” said Dow Chemical Co. CEO Andrew Liveris in a Nov. 13 interview. An increase in prices “is probably going to be near impossible in the next three to six months.”