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Rural Mainstreet Index remains below growth neutral as slowdown continues

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Iowa’s Rural Mainstreet Index remained below growth neutral in May, dropping to 44.3 from April’s 46.4. 

The state’s farm and ranchland price index in May improved to 48.4 from 46.4 in April, but its new hiring index declined to 40.3 from April’s 46.3.

For the 15th time since January 2025, the 10-state region’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index reading was below growth neutral, dropping to 45.7 from April’s 47.9. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement. “Approximately 47.8% of bankers reported that the financial position of farmers in their area had deteriorated in 2026 from 2025.” 

Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025, climbed by 25.4% to $583.1 million, according to trade data from the International Trade Association.

After three consecutive months below growth neutral, the region’s farm and ranchland price index increased to 50.1 in May from 48.0 the previous month. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have restrained farmland values,” Goss said.

The May farm equipment sales index was 18.2, down from 26.1 in April, marking the 33rd straight month that the index has been below growth neutral.

Other regional findings from the report include:

  • The May loan volume index rose to 67.4 from 65.2 in April and the index for certificates of deposits increased to 60.9 from 56.5, but the checking deposit index fell to 54.3 from 60.9.
  • The new hiring index for May sank to 43.5 from 50.0 in April. “In April, only 4.2% of bankers reported an upturn in hiring for the month,” Goss said.  
  • The May economic confidence index dropped to 34.8 from 39.1 in April, and rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. “In spite of the potential for year-round E-15 ethanol sales, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continue to weigh on banker confidence,” Goss said. 
  • The home sales index improved to 47.8 from 45.8 in April. 
  • Regional retail sales increased to 41.3 from 39.1 in April.