Time to go Dutch, invest in Heineken
Dear Mr. Berko: Please give me your thoughts on Heineken Beer and on ECC Capital, which is paying a 24-cent dividend and yields 20 percent. I could buy 10,000 shares of ECC if the dividend is even half safe. And I’d like to buy 200 shares of Heineken Beer, because I think their beer is the best. L.D., Waterloo, Iowa
Dear L.D.:
Staying on top of some mortgage real estate trusts is like painting a portrait while riding a galloping camel. ECC Capital Corp. (ECR-$1.16), which sells, purchases and services first and second subprime mortgages on single-family homes, is no exception.
Last year, ECR generated $343 million in revenues from offices in Florida, Illinois, California, Virginia and New York with a strong emphasis on “nonconforming” borrowers. That’s a politically correct term for deadbeats. The huge dividend is a result of the sale of ECR’s subprime mortgage banking business to a subsidiary of Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. for $26 million. The deal is supposed to close by the end of the first quarter of 2007, and ECR intends to pay out all the proceeds of the sale (80 cents per share) to its shareholders. The first payout of 24 cents will be made by the end of January, and the remainder is to be paid by the end of this quarter.
The 20 percent yield sounds compelling if you’re a riverboat gambler, but I’m concerned that ECR might not recover after it pays that dividend. ECC Capital Corp.went public in early 2005 and traded between $7 and $5 a share, sporting a $2.75 book value.
Still, some believe the company will survive after selling its mortgage banking business.
Under the Bear Stearns deal, the name will change to Encore Credit, and the company expects to maintain its loan purchase obligations as well as remaining leases. I suspect this thing is radioactive and wouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole.
But I do like Heineken N.V. (HINKY- $25.30), a Dutch brewer home-ported in Amsterdam that earned $1.1 billion last year on $15 billion in revenues. In fact, I like HINKY more than Anheuser- Busch Cos. Inc. (BUD-$51), which also had $15 billion in revenues and earned $1.8 billion last year. I like HINKY better than BUD because its revenue growth is 5.9 percent over the last five years, which is three times that of BUD’s. I like Heineken because its net profit margins have improved while Busch’s have remained frozen, and I like HINKY better than BUD because it has a higher return on capital, a better debt-toequity ratio and superior gross margins.
And I like HINKY because the company’s premium light beer revenues have grown by more than 70 percent at the expense of Bud Light and Miller Lite. According to a knowledgeable acquaintance, Bud and Miller’s light beers taste like tepid tea, but Heinekin Light “grabs you where it counts.”
He might be right, because Sam and Suzy Six-Pack are pulling it off the shelves even though it sells at a premium of 50 cents a bottle to Bud Light.The bottle’s green color and short neck keep the European cachet, and its slim, tall silhouette gives it a classy, modern, almost exclusive appearance. According to Beer Business Daily’s Harry Schumacher, it’s “like a pretty girl you coveted.”
HINKY’s light beer revenues are brewing, but, best of all, the company has managed this success without cannibalizing sales of its original brew.
Though light beer revenues haven’t been exciting in the past few years, they still account for 51 percent of the overall beer market and are now growing at 3 percent a year. The growth of Heineken Light, after 16 months of experimentation to find the right brew balance, is sizzling.
Last year HINKY earned $1.20 a share.This year the earnings are expected to come in between $1.44 and $1.48. J.P. Morgan rates Heineken as a buy, and I’m compelled to agree.


