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Trade deficit takes an unexpected jump

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The U.S. trade deficit widened in October as faltering global demand led to a third consecutive drop in exports, signaling that the American economy is sinking even faster than previously estimated, Bloomberg reported.

The gap expanded 1.1 percent to $57.2 billion from a revised $56.6 billion in September, the U.S. Commerce Department said today. Exports dropped to the lowest level in seven months as foreign purchases of U.S. aircraft, automobiles, chemicals and food waned.

The global credit crunch is slowing growth in Europe, Asia and Latin America, indicating the United States can no longer count on gains in trade to help offset the recessions in housing and manufacturing. American households and businesses are also retrenching, a sign that purchases of foreign-produced oil, televisions and computers will keep softening.

The trade gap was projected to narrow to $53.5 billion from an initially reported $56.5 billion in September, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 70 economists. Estimates ranged from deficits of $47 billion to $57.5 billion.

After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the deficit surged to $46.4 billion from $42 billion in September.

The jump in the trade deficit signals that trade may subtract from fourth-quarter growth after adding 1.1 percentage points in the previous three months when the economy shrank at a 0.5 percent rate. The already yearlong U.S. recession is likely to become the longest in the postwar era, according to economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News.

Exports dropped 2.2 percent to $151.7 billion, reflecting a broad-based retreat in demand for American products.

Japan’s economy will shrink 0.2 percent in 2009, and Europe’s will contract 0.5 percent, according to a revised forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month. Its global growth estimate for 2009 was scaled back to 2.2 percent from 3.7 percent this year.

John Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said his organization will probably reduce its global growth forecasts again next month.