Viagra suit aside, Pfizer is still a ‘buy’
Dear Mr. Berko: I want to buy 200 shares of Pfizer, but my broker thinks that this new Viagra suit by some AIDS organization against Pfizer could harm the company’s earnings and deplete its cash position if Pfizer loses. Please tell me what this suit is about. I trust my broker, but he’s often overly cautious, and his caution, while I respect it, has caused me to lose out on several good opportunities in the past three years. E.B., Des Moines
Dear E.B.:
One of the most serious problems in this country today, other than terrorists, is the proliferation of a species we call lawyers. Because of its exponential growth, members of this species cannot find constructive employment, so they must bottom-feed to generate fees. They have done a magnificent job persuading the AIDS Healthcare Foundation – which operates free AIDS clinics in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, plus treatment centers in Florida and California – to sue Pfizer.
This foundation needs money, bigtime money, to support the good work it does. So miscreant lawyers convinced the San Francisco-based foundation to sue Pfizer (PFE-$26.55), claiming the drug maker’s ads for Viagra promote recreational sex, thus increasing the public’s risk of contracting AIDS. In January, this group filed a complaint in a state court in California.
I think this is a super time to buy 200 shares of Pfizer. The company is struggling against fierce competition from generic drug makers – PFE’s Zoloft and Zithromax are now off patent, and Lipitor loses protection in 2011 – but new management has been aggressively making important changes to ensure the company’s success in the future. So even though revenues may be flat as a cookie sheet this year, earnings for 2007 are expected to come in at $2.20 a share versus $2.05 in 2006, and 2008 earnings are projected at $2.42. Not bad!
Management will cut more than 10,000 jobs and close five plants,which should reduce costs by $2.2 billion. This is on top of a plan announced last year to reduce annual costs by $4 billion beginning next year. In addition to closing three research sites in Michigan and manufacturing plants in Nebraska and New York, PFE will close research sites in Germany and France and sell a manufacturing plant in Germany.
Jeffrey Kindler, who became PFE’s chief executive officer last summer, is not interested in incremental changes; rather, his goal is fundamental change. Kindler is a brilliant, smart-charging, nononsense manager who is respected by his troops and earns their loyalty. He’s a great guy to run the world’s largest pharmaceutical firm with $48 billion in revenues.
Pfizer dominates the landscape and has the resources to invest more in research and development and marketing than its competitors. Drug development is basically a numbers game and PFE has muscle with 153 drugs in its pipeline; it has filed for 15 new drug approvals in the past three years. Three of these recently earned approval and each could be a blockbuster, producing more than $1 billion in annual revenues. Meanwhile,
PFE spends billions on comparative studies to demonstrate the superiority of its products. These studies enable its sales force to outshine the competition. PFE’s 31 percent net profit margin is impressive and so is its recently raised dividend ($1.16), which yields a sweet 4.4 percent. PFE has raised this dividend every year for at least 25 years, and I expect that trend to continue. Though the shares are not expected to zoom, I believe PFE can give you a 10 percent to 14 percent annual return over the next five years and beat the averages in a slow or down market.
I am required to tell you that I and many of my managed accounts own shares of Pfizer.
Please address your financial questions to Malcolm Berko, P.O. Box 1416, Boca Raton, Fla. 33429 or e-mail him at malber@adelphia.net. © Copley News Service