At the Business Record Economic Forecast on Jan. 20, moderator Chris Conetzkey asked each panelist to share one thing about the economy that makes them feel bearish and one thing they feel bullish about.

Here’s what they said. Their responses have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Robin Anderson, state chief economist and division administrator, research and policy division, Iowa Department of Revenue

Bearish: “What’s happening with long-term interest rates and what are the risks to seeing long-term interest rates rise for communities that rely on things like prime loan rates, auto loan rates, mortgage rates, and if we see long-term interest rates rise and move in the opposite direction to short-term interest rates, what’s that going to do to the Main Street economy?”

Bullish: “I do feel optimistic about productivity. … It is showing up in the nationwide economic data, and productivity picking up is a good thing, because that means the economy can grow without inflationary forces.”

Debi Durham, director, Iowa Finance Authority and the Economic Development Authority

Bearish: “It’s still population. That is, I think, one of the biggest challenges we have, but it’s not just Iowa, it’s national. And I do believe that China is majorly overestimating how many people they actually have. So when you think about that, I think that’s a real problem for the world.”

Bullish: “At the same time, the bullish part of me is [population is] where we have to focus because we’re not going to have people coming in after you see the retirees leave in record numbers. We’re focusing on that whole industry 4.0 and automation so that we can still increase wealth by growing productivity, so for me, that productivity factor is the bright spot.”

Amy Friedrich, president of benefits and protection, Principal Financial Group

“I’m going to come back to the point I opened up with, which was certainty. I feel like we’re kind of shooting ourselves in our own foot on some of the issues related to things that can feel a bit more certain. So I worry that, especially for small and mid-size businesses [because] there’s as many decisions made off of sentiment as they are made off of spreadsheets. And the smaller the business, the more you end up seeing that dynamic play out. If Iowa can grab the pieces that are certain, make sure we’ve got clear indications of what that plan is and how we’re going to fund those pieces of the plan, I think any of those pieces of certainty help us. I can sit on both sides on that issue. I get excited when I hear about long-term efforts and long-term efforts that have the funding that they need. When I see bipartisan support for some of those long-term issues, then I also know it’s going to be good for the Iowa economy.”

Eric Lohmeier, president, NCP

Bearish: “I’m probably most worried about something called the wealth effect. This goes back to my earlier questions of, ‘Why do you have one set of Iowans saying, I’m bullish, and one set is bearish?’ Frankly, I think if you have wealth outside of your 401ks and accounts, you’ve been on a really good bull market run from stock performance to commodities to most financial assets that could perform extraordinarily well if you look at a 10-year cycle. I think it’s been very easy if you have wealth to basically spend a little of that down. You make 20% of the market, you take 2% or 3% of that out. … What I’m bearish about is the next five or 10 years are certainly not going to perform the last five or 10 years as far as where I strongly believe the performance of financial assets are going to be.”

Bullish: “The ag economy and the corollaries, the transportation and logistics economy, both in the Midwest and nationally, have frankly just been so bad for the last few years, we are definitely seeing some greenshoes there. We’re seeing better performance. We’re seeing fuller trucks, better routes, more profitable routes. I’m slightly bullish on the regional economy, just because it does feel like we’re bouncing on the bottom and we might actually get some growth this year, so that’s actually a real positive, and Iowa needs it.”

Jeff Lorenzen, CEO, American Equity 

Bearish: “I think from the weakness side it’s going to be around skilled labor. I still believe that labor availability and the demographic pressures that we’re going to see are going to limit our ability to grow as we move forward. We have to be able to attract skilled talent to the state because we’re not manufacturing it through our schools and retaining those within the state the way that we need to.” 

Bullish: “I’m on the other side of the economy. I think the steepening of the curve is a positive for financial institutions. If we can get mortgage rates, right now those are around 6%, if we can get those into the mid 5s, low 5s, I think it will be a catalyst to spark housing again and get people buying. It creates that catalyst that I think we need. I do think rates will ultimately come down some more, especially on the front end, a quarter, a half a point. If we are seeing lower inflation, we are seeing softer growth, which I anticipate, we should see the 10-year treasury maintain or go lower as well, and I think that will be a catalyst to fuel some of the housing market that has been a tailwind for some time now.”