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Rural Mainstreet Index dips first time since March

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index fell for August from July’s tepid reading, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region.  


Overall, the index sank to a growth-neutral 50, down from 53.4 in July. It was the first decline in the overall index since March, signaling weaker conditions among businesses tied directly to agriculture and energy, said Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton.


The August farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 14.2 from July’s 17.9, but was up from June’s record low of 12.5. “With farm income expected to decline for a second straight year, farmers remain very cautious regarding the purchase of agricultural equipment,” Goss said.


Despite weaker crop prices and pullbacks from businesses with close ties to agriculture and energy, Rural Mainstreet businesses continue to add workers to their payrolls. The August hiring index increased to a strong 63.3 from 60.3 in July.


This month the survey asked bankers to project the expected change in farmland prices over the next year. On average, bankers reported an estimated decline of 5.8 percent over the next year. Last August when the same question was asked, bankers reported an expected 4.8 percent decrease.  


The survey’s confidence index, which reflects expectations for the economy six months out, slumped to 42.0 from 46.6 in July.