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Measure of Iowa economic activity fell for 10th month in a row in October

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The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased to 106.3 in October from 106.7 in September, the Iowa Department of Revenue said today.


The index has dropped for 10 consecutive months, with the magnitude of the drop reflected in the annualized six-month change of -4.4 percentage points in October, slightly improved from -4.9 percentage points in September, according to a release.
 
October was the sixth month where the index has met the two key metrics that, when seen together, are considered a signal of a coming economic contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2 percent and a six-month diffusion index below 50.


Six of the eight components of the index registered declines in October, led by a drop in the agricultural futures profits index. Manufacturing hours and the Iowa stock market index made positive contributions.