Business economists are glum
Economics experts who participated in a survey think the U.S. economy will grow less than previously estimated through 2012, reflecting a slump in confidence, limited consumer spending and a struggling housing market, Bloomberg reported.
The gross domestic product will expand 1.7 percent this year, less than the May forecast of 2.8 percent, according to results of a survey by the National Association for Business Economics released today in Washington. Growth in 2012 will average 2.3 percent, lower than a previous projection of 3.2 percent.
Some 54 percent of respondents lowered their growth forecasts because they said the legislation stemming from the debt-ceiling debate will fail to reduce the long-term budget deficit. Unemployment projected to stay above 8.5 percent until late next year and Europe’s debt crisis were also among panelists’ top concerns.
Thirty percent of respondents, up from 11 percent in May, view the recovery as “subpar, with severe wealth losses and onerous debt burdens.” Some 24 percent, down from 34 percent in the prior survey, said the recovery will continue at a “moderate” pace, while 13 percent, up from 3 percent, predicted that the economy will slide into a recession.
Consumer spending will increase 2.1 percent this year and next, down from the previous forecast of 2.8 percent, according to the survey. Auto sales will total 12.6 million this year, according to the survey.
Spending on home construction will drop 1.6 percent through the fourth quarter, compared with a prior forecast for a 0.9 percent increase. Home prices, as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s index, will decline 2 percent in the fourth quarter from the same three months last year.
Payrolls will increase 124,100 a month on average this year, down from the prior estimate of 190,300, the survey showed. Unemployment will average 9 percent in 2011, higher than the 8.7 percent projection in the prior survey.