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Bear market latest sign of recession

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A bear stock market is another sign that the U.S. economy could be in a recession, MSNBC reported.

After several weeks of stock prices hovering around bear-market levels, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index fell more than 20 percent from its October peak level last week, while the Dow Jones industrial average already had dropped more than 20 percent from its most recent peak. A 20 percent decline in stock prices is the traditional definition of a bear market.

As of 9 a.m., the Dow was down 195.98 points to 10,859.21, the S&P was down 24.42 points to 1,203.88 and the Nasdaq composite index was down 39.73 points to 2,173.14. Since then, the markets have rallied a bit, with the Dow down 36.64 points to 11,018.55, the S&P 500 down 5.91 points to 1,222.39 and the Nasdaq up 2.89 points to 2,215.76 as of 11:05 a.m.

Typically, bear markets and recessions go together, as investors sell stock on news that companies are marking down profit forecasts. But the market has pulled back before without the economy heading into recession, such as the Crash of 1987. On the other hand, during the recessions of 1980-82, the S&P 500 was actually higher at the end of the event than it was when it began.

History shows that bear markets tend to last a little more than a year and stock prices fall about 30 percent, so it’s likely stocks will decline a bit further.

How far the markets will fall will likely depend on companies’ second-quarter earnings reports as well as economic indicators.

According to the Associated Press, the Labor Department reported today that wholesale prices jumped by 1.8 percent in June. Wholesale prices over the past 12 months are up 9.2 percent, the largest year-over-year increase since June 1981. Soaring costs for gasoline and food drove the increase.

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