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The chief economist for Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) says nonresidential construction will stay flat or decline in the months ahead. The chief economist for the American Institute of Architects (AIA) predicts a 6.7 percent decline in 2009.

Citing “soft demand” and a “difficult financing environment,” ABC’s Anirban Basu says the outlook is uninspiring “even in the event that the U.S. macroeconomy begins to pick up steam again.” He said, “It is also worth noting that the global economy has begun to slow significantly in recent months, which threatens to diminish growth in the exports segment of the U.S. economy that has performed better than any other in 2008.”

The AIA’s Kermit Baker foresees a big drop in office and retail construction, but increases in the construction of education and health-care facilities.

Baker points out that the cost of construction materials has gone up twice as fast as consumer products and services since 2004, which doesn’t brighten the sector’s future. However, he said, “this contraction in activity is likely to be considerably milder than the construction recessions of the early 1990s and earlier this decade.”

Here, we know that construction will continue on two Central Iowa hospitals, the Wellmark Blue Cross and Blue Shield headquarters and the Aviva USA headquarters. Nationwide Insurance is finishing up its latest building. We should see fresh activity in the Jordan Creek area along with the Aviva project.

One might wonder, however, if the chilly building climate will slow the momentum of smaller projects. Ankeny has been on a building spree for some time; Altoona has filled a lot of its prime parcels; Waukee is poised for another leap forward. Developers might see the next steps as being more risky now than they have been recently.

As for downtown Des Moines, more gaps remain than we anticipated a couple of years ago. In 2009, we’ll see how big the Wellmark and Nationwide effect can be.