If you can stand the wait, employers will add jobs in next three months
The U.S. economy will add jobs by the end of this year, said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc., Bloomberg reported.
The unemployment rate will “peak slightly below 10 percent,” Maki said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “We don’t think there’s a lot left to go.” In August, the rate reached a quarter-century high of 9.7 percent.
After losing jobs every month since December 2007, “payroll growth turns positive” within three months, Maki said. September, however, will show another net loss in non-farm payrolls, he said.
After expanding at a 3.5 percent annual rate this quarter, the economy will grow at a 4 percent pace in the fourth quarter and at a 5 percent rate at the start of 2010, Maki wrote in a research report issued Sept. 17. Maki previously had forecast a 3 percent growth rate at the start of 2010.
The rebound in the economy is being driven by housing and consumer spending, Maki said today.
“Housing has turned in a durable way in our view” and “consumer spending is actually coming in stronger than we expected,” he said. In housing, “affordability has improved so dramatically” and “housing prices have fallen faster than incomes.”