The U.S. recession is bottoming out and a recovery is near, economists for The Conference Board said today after reporting that the index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6 percent in August, the fifth straight increase, MarketWatch reported.

The coincident index – designed to measure current activity – was flat in August after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in July, the private research organization said. The increase in July was the first since September 2008 and just the second since the recession began in December 2007.

Five of the 10 leading indicators improved in August, and two others were unchanged. The leading indicators are designed to forecast economic activity about six to nine months ahead.

The positive contributions came from supplier deliveries, the interest-rate spread, stock prices, building permits and consumer expectations. The negative contributions to the index came from the real money supply, jobless claims and capital-goods orders. The factory workweek and consumer-goods orders were unchanged in August.

“These numbers are consistent with the view that, after a very severe downturn, a recovery is very near,” said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist. “But the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain.”

The leading indicators had fallen for 20 consecutive months before turning higher in April.

Over the past six months, the leading index has risen 4.4 percent after falling 2.4 percent in the previous six months. Eight of the 10 indicators have improved over the past six months. The coincident index has fallen 2 percent in the past six months, with none of the four indicators showing improvement.

Three of the four coincident indicators improved in August: industrial production, personal incomes and business sales. The fourth coincident indicator – nonfarm payrolls – fell. Personal incomes and sales were estimated by The Conference Board.

The four coincident indicators are the same ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to judge whether the economy is growing or contracting. The bureau is not expected to make a ruling about the end of the recession for several months.