Many American citizens might not agree, but the federal government took the right steps to stop and reverse the Great Recession, in the opinion of Scott Brown, the economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.

Brown traveled to Des Moines from Florida to keynote the Business Record’s annual Economic Forecast event at the Embassy Suites on the River hotel on Feb. 8. He set the tone for a mostly optimistic session, saying that we’ve entered a “positive feedback loop that may build during the first part of the year.”

Rescuing the nation’s megabanks and spending huge sums on stimulus programs helped get us to this point, Brown contended. “The bank rescue was hugely unpopular, but I think it was a great success,” he said. And the fiscal stimulus package was “a bridge to allow the private sector time to recover.”

Furthermore, he characterized the huge national deficit as making “perfect sense in this situation.” It would become a major problem eventually if it remains at elevated levels, but Brown said he looks for the budget deficit to improve in the next three to five years.

Following Brown’s talk, four local leaders from different sectors of the economy offered their thoughts. Eric Crowell, CEO of Iowa Health – Des Moines, said the health-care industry’s future will be value-based. “Our future is that we’ll be paid on outcomes,” he said. Crowell said the 5 percent of our citizens who suffer from chronic diseases account for 50 percent of health-care spending, “and our industry is going to focus on that. We want to share in the savings.”

Larry Zimpleman, CEO of Principal Financial Group Inc., agreed with Brown that the economy is in a “reinforcing cycle” right now. However, he noted, “this is the first recession since World War II when it will not be the United States and Europe leading the way back.”

Instead, it’s China, Brazil, India and some other places that are showing the way. “If you’re not finding a way to have your products accessed in those markets,” said Zimpleman, whose company has become truly multinational, “I would highly suggest you get about that task.”

Debi Durham, the newly appointed head of the Iowa Department of Economic Development, said the state’s goals under Gov. Terry Branstad are to add jobs through innovation, increase exports, increase educational attainment and find the right policy approach on taxes and regulations.

Rick Tollakson, CEO of Hubbell Realty Co., said he hoped 2010 represented the bottom of the real estate market. Gaping vacancies remain on the commercial side, where Greater Des Moines has a 25 percent vacancy rate in both competitive office space and retail space; industrial space, by contrast, enjoys 91 percent occupancy.

On the residential side, things look brighter. Tollakson said he expects 2,300 homes to be built this year, and that Greater Des Moines has about a 2 1/2-year inventory of platted residential lots. That, he said, is close to equilibrium.