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Wells Fargo economist sees glimmer of recovery

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Now is a good time for individual investors to rebalance their portfolios and position themselves to profit when the economy recovers, say representatives of Wells Fargo Private Bank.

That was part of the advice that about 200 Wells Fargo Private Bank clients and other invited guests received this morning at an economic forecast and investment outlook panel held this morning at the Des Moines Marriott Downtown.

“It’s darkest before the dawn, and boy, is it dark right now,” said Gary Schlossberg, senior economist for Wells Capital Management. The good news behind all the bleak economic news, he said, is that the U.S. economy is resilient, with a gradual recovery on the horizon later this year.

However, the economic rule of thumb that “the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery” may not hold true for this recession, already 15 months old and likely to be the longest since 1945, he said.

“We are seeing the natural healing process of the economy beginning to come into place,” Schlossberg said. “The recovery may be so gradual in the second half of the year that people may say, ‘What recovery?’ but at least we’ll be moving in the right direction.” Some of the balancing factors that are helping the economy are lower interest rates, which are encouraging home refinancings, and a significant decline in the rate of inflation that should free up more money for households to spend, he said.

Investors should seek out opportunities now to profit when the economy recovers, said several Wells Fargo Private Bank wealth advisers who were on the panel. Among the opportunities are direct purchases of commodities, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and tax-free municipal bonds.

Now is also a good time for investors to consider realizing losses on investments and rebalancing their portfolios, said Brett Halley, an investment manager. “You need to rebalance your portfolio for the recovery, and certainly today is a good day to do that,” he said.

“Another short-term strategy I try to get clients to do is to stop watching CNBC,” Halley quipped.