Economists anticipate that the U.S. economy will contract sharply in the first quarter, with the current cyclical downturn on track to rival the 1973-75 slump as soaring unemployment depresses demand, a survey showed.

However, the 47 professional forecasters polled in a survey released today by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) predicted the economy would begin to recover in the second half of this year, returning to a potential growth trend in 2010, Reuters reported.

The recovery will be driven by the Obama administration’s $787 billion economic stimulus plan, the group said.

“The steady drumbeat of weak economic and financial market data have made business economists decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters,” said NABE President Chris Varvares.

“The good news is that economic activity is expected to turn up in the second half of the year, and 2010 is expected to see modestly above-trend growth of 3.1 percent,” he said.

The survey, conducted between Jan. 29 and Feb. 12, forecast that real gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by an annualized rate of 5 percent in the first quarter, moderating to a 1.7 percent contraction rate in the second quarter.

The economy is expected to expand by 1 percent in the third quarter, with growth quickening to 2.1 percent in the final three months of the year, the poll respondents said.

Advance government estimates indicated that GDP shrank at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised to show a bigger contraction when preliminary figures are released on Friday.

In November, the NABE survey had forecast first-quarter GDP sliding at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, before rising by 0.5 percent in the second quarter.

The survey predicts the unemployment rate will peak at 9 percent in the fourth quarter before edging lower beginning in the second quarter of 2010. The U.S. jobless rate is currently at 7.6 percent, a 16-year high.