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Consumers cautiously optimistic

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An index measuring U.S. consumer confidence rose this month for a fourth straight time, reflecting signs that the worst recession in at least five decades may end this year, Bloomberg reported.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 69, the highest level in nine months, from 68.7 in May.

Job losses are slowing, recent reports show that housing and manufacturing — the two worst parts of the economy — are stabilizing, and the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus may help shore up consumer demand. Still, a record loss of wealth is causing Americans to boost savings, and unemployment is forecast to keep rising, so a recovery will be slow to take hold.

“Confidence is slowly but surely coming back,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Conn., said before the report was released. “In the next few months we should see more follow-through in the labor market, which in turn should give confidence a further boost, which in turn should lead to a sustained recovery in consumer spending.”

The report also found that consumers are less optimistic when they attempt to anticipate economic conditions that will prevail six months from now.