The chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said the end of the recession is “literally just around the corner,” but there is a 15 percent to 20 percent chance of another economic downturn by late 2010, the Pittsburgh Business Times reported.

Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually high, because double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicts the current economic downturn will end around September, but the unemployment rate will remain high through the first half of next year. Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does after a recession, Regalia said.

Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem because of the huge federal budget deficits and the massive amount of money pumped into the economy by the Federal Reserve, he said. If this stimulus is not unwound once the economy begins to recover, higher interest rates could choke off improvement in the housing market and business investment, he said.

“The economy has got to be running on its own by the middle of next year,” Regalia said.

The chances of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of the Federal Reserve, Regalia said. If President Barack Obama appoints his economic adviser Larry Summers to chair the Fed, that would signal that the monetary spigot would remain open for a longer time, he said.

Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February.

Meanwhile, more than half of small business owners expect the recession to last at least another two years, according to a survey of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect their own business to grow in the next 12 months.

“Small business owners are bullish on their own abilities, but bearish on the factors they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for Intuit Employee Management Solutions. “Even in the gloomiest economy there are opportunities to seize.”

A separate survey of small business owners by Discover Financial Services found that 57 percent thought the economy was getting worse, while 26 percent thought the economy was improving. More than half planned to decrease spending on business development in the next six months.