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Advice for an investor with reverse Midas touch

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Dear Mr. Berko:

In mid-2000, I bought 300 shares of Time Warner Inc. at $74, 200 shares of Siebel Systems Inc. at $98, 200 shares of Extreme Networks Inc. at $109, 200 shares of Level 3 Communications Inc. at $104 and 200 shares of Conexant Systems Inc. at $107. And as you can see, I’ve got huge losses in each.

I’m really angry at my broker for getting me into these lousy stocks, because he certainly should have known better than to sell me stocks like these that crashed almost immediately after he bought them for me. If I had any idea that these issues were so risky, I would not have bought them.

Please tell me if you think there is a good chance that these issues will return to, or at least approach, their previously high prices. If not, do you think I should take a loss and sell them?

T.K., Boca Raton, Fla.

Dear T.K.:

I think you and that broker deserve each other. Both of you are like a monetary black hole. When you walk into a Costco, a Home Depot or a Bank of America office in Boca Raton, the stock price probably falls 15 percent. You indicated that if you “had any idea these issues were so risky,” you wouldn’t have bought them. You know what I think? If those were conservative and low-risk issues, I don’t think you would have bought them. So don’t blame your decisions on your broker.

You paid $74 per share for 200 shares of Time Warner Inc. (TWX-$18.06) and have an $11,188 loss. Candidly, I don’t reckon that TWX has enough juice left to crawl to $30. When the company merged with America Online in 2001, I wrote that this was one of the dumbest corporate decisions of the century. I don’t see the price of TWX recovering much more than 10 to 15 points over the next few years. The reason is simple. In my opinion, Time Warner does not have the management expertise to improve its performance, and the company’s $13 billion purchase of Adelphia Cable might be as big a flop as the AOL deal. Despite feckless management, I suggest that you hold the stock. There’s some potential inside gurgitation going on that could add 35 percent to 50 percent to the stock price this year.

You paid $98 per share for 200 shares of Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL-$10.31) and currently enjoy a $17,538 loss. For those of you not in the know, SEBL is a provider of corporate sales and marketing software system to provide comprehensive sales information solutions. But SEBL has a host of problems, including poor management that’s not trusted by the Street and shareholders, and doesn’t seem to have any idea how to deal with its competition. Oracle, SAP and PeopleSoft are knocking SEBL out of the market; indeed, Oracle has agreed to buy Siebel. Though SEBL has no long-term debt, net profit margins are an embarrassing 7.5 percent, which is certainly a testament to poor management. Dump the stock.

You paid $109 apiece for 200 shares of Extreme Networks Inc. (EXTR-$4.51) and have a lovely loss of about $20,900. This teeny, tiny, midge of a company peddles next-generation switching solutions for local area networks and Internet service providers. One really must be an idiot to pay 900 times earnings for this company — or any company, for that matter. EXTR has two big, big problems: (1) A lack of reliability has damaged the company’s brand name and users are shying away from the product. (2) Cisco Systems Inc. is the 800-pound gorilla in the data-networking field and has a very strong base of satisfied customers. Cisco also has about $18 billion in green cash to use for research and acquisitions. Dump this stock, too.

You paid $104 a share for 200 shares of Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT-$2.29) and managed to earn a $20,300 capital loss. Sales of dial-up modem and DSL aggregation services continue to decline as expected and LVLT’s voice business was flat as a windowpane. With $6 billion in debt and $4 billion in revenue, this company continues to burn cash at the rate of $1.2 million a day. I think you should dump the stock.

You paid $107 a share for 200 shares of Conexant Systems Inc. (CNXT-$1.81), which provides semiconductor solutions for broadband and entertainment applications. CNXT’s products connect audio, video, data, voice over broadband and dial-up connections. CNXT hasn’t made a nickel since you bought the stock, and the Street doesn’t see any immediate change in its prospects. There is some speculation that CNXT might not be able to pay its $500 million in debt due in 2007. So say “so long” to CNXT.

Please address your financial questions to Malcolm Berko, P.O. Box 1416, Boca Raton, Fla. 33429 or e-mail him at malber@adelphia.net.

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