A record number of passengers coming through Des Moines International Airport in 2004 left airport officials and many Central Iowans nearly convinced that brighter days were ahead for air travel in the region.

But a decline in enplanements in recent months has led those same people to question last year’s optimism, whether Des Moines International peaked in 2004 and what the chances are of a low-fare carrier ever entering the Central Iowa market.

“I think sometimes it’s like looking into a crystal ball trying to determine what’s going to happen,” said Aviation Director Craig Smith. “We hope it’s a temporary blip in the system. I just wish there was something specific I could point to so that we could fix it.”

Des Moines International boarded 997,052 passengers in 2004, besting the 2003 record by 86,000. Through April, the airport was 3,000 enplanements ahead of last year’s pace. But that trend didn’t continue, and year-to-date enplanements through August were 16,000 behind last year. Though statistics for September have not been released, airport spokesman Roy Criss doesn’t expect good news, largely due to high fuel costs.

“I think a lot of people have delayed or postponed vacation plans because they’re holding on to their money,” Criss said.

The numbers still represent continued struggles for the airport, which faces stiff competition from other Midwestern airports. Criss frequently fields comments from Central Iowa travelers who complain of the high fares on flights serving Des Moines International. In the 2005 Des Moines Business Record Executive Survey, released in May, only 11 percent of survey respondents ranked the airport in the top two spots on a scale of 1 to 5. Forty-five percent ranked it in the bottom two levels.

But airport officials argue that the only way for things to change is for passenger numbers to continue to rise, which would help entice airlines into the market. Last year’s record-setting pace was a critical step in that direction, but certainly not the first.

Enplanements in 2004 received a boost from several major events. The presidential caucuses in January drew thousands of campaign workers, media representatives and other visitors to the state. The AAU Junior Olympic Summer Games held July 27 through Aug. 7 brought an estimated 25,000 to 30,000 people to Des Moines. Iowa State University and University of Iowa football fans flooded the airport’s terminals in late December to get to those teams’ bowl games.

Though airport officials do not believe last year’s numbers were a fluke – they still expect to see 950,000 to 960,000 enplanements this year – they’re also concerned that any attention the airport received because of its record-setting year, particularly from low-fare carriers, may begin to wane. In the Executive Survey, the most frequent suggestion for improving the airport was to bring in one of those carriers, such as Southwest Airlines.

Two low-fare carriers, attracted primarily by increased travel numbers, expressed interest in expanding their operations into Des Moines, Criss said. One airline expressed “high-level interest” and does not appear to be concerned about declining enplanement numbers.

“I think the real key to decision making is internal with that airline,” he said.

Another carrier, wasn’t so much concerned about declining enplanements as it was about the airport’s incentive package. Simply put, the airline wants more money than Des Moines International is willing to put on the table.

Many airports across the country subsidize airlines through a practice known as “risk mitigation” in the industry. These airports agree to cover the airline’s financial losses to ensure its profitability in the market. So far, Des Moines International has refused to follow their lead.

“It might serve the short term, but it doesn’t make long-term sense,” Smith said.

Des Moines International does, however, offer airlines a 12-month incentive package valued at $150,000. Airlines can use a maximum of $75,000 to market and advertise a non-stop route to a destination that had not previously been served through non-stop service from Des Moines. The remainder of the incentive package can be applied to landing fees for the first year of operation.

Wichita, Kan., offered a risk mitigation plan to AirTran Airways as an incentive for the low-fare airline to expand into that market. Though the company has provided a low-fare option at Wichita Mid-Continent Airport, the city has been forced to pay millions to AirTran to make up for its losses. Delta Air Lines, which also serves Wichita Mid-Continent, has screamed foul, claiming subsidies to AirTran puts it at a competitive disadvantage. The issue has split Wichita residents, some of whom say they have to pay the subsidies to maintain a low-fare carrier, and others who say the millions handed to AirTran could be better spent elsewhere.

“The fact is that when the money runs out and the enplanements aren’t there anymore and the community’s not supporting that carrier, then the carrier will go away,” Smith said. “We would rather bring in a carrier based on what the market can bear rather than by throwing money at them.”

About two years ago, Criss contacted TransMeridian Airlines to weigh its interest in expanding into Des Moines. But the airline, dissuaded by a lack of financial incentives, instead expanded into Rockford, Ill., where residents had pooled $270,000 in donations to bring the airline to the community.

But just over two years after the first TransMeridien flight took off from the Greater Rockford Airport, the airline left town, preparing to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy.

“If you get into that business (of subsidizing airlines), you’re just setting yourself up for trouble,” Criss said.

He said there are only three viable options for communities to attract airlines into their markets: offer financial incentives, request intervention by a federally elected official on behalf of the community, or drive up passenger numbers. The latter is Des Moines International’s chosen method, sending a message to airlines that the numbers are there to make them successful in this community.

Even if the airport increases its passenger numbers each year into the future, history is not working in its favor. Three low-fare carriers – Ozark Airlines, Vanguard Airlines and AirTran – all operated out of Des Moines International at varying times during the mid-1980s to the late-1990s. They operated successfully, Criss said, until traditional airlines lowered their fares to remain competitive while also offering perks such as frequent-flier miles. Those low-fare carriers became decreasingly profitable and eventually left town. Criss said that may show a lack of support on the part of the community and may dissuade low-fare carriers from entering the market in the future.

But there are also Central Iowa residents left with a bad taste in their mouths in regards to Access Air Inc.’s operations in Des Moines. Numerous investors anted up tens of millions of dollars to bring that carrier’s service to Des Moines International. It began service in March 1999 and permanently discontinued operations less than two years later.

Regardless of financial incentives or passenger numbers, airport officials find themselves in a Catch-22 with travelers and recruitable carriers. Travelers say they would patronize the airport if it had a low-fare carrier, but low-fare carriers say they need the passenger numbers to expand operations into Des Moines.

“There are probably people who think throwing money (at airlines) is the right way to go,” Smith said. “But we’re going to get our message out the best we can with what we think is the best approach to recruitable and low-cost carriers.”