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Iowa rural economy slows in August

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Iowa’s rural economy slowed in August, with the state’s rural mainstreet index, farmland price index and new hiring index all decreasing from July.

Iowa’s rural mainstreet index score dipped to 53.7 from 54.1, according to Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index, which was released Thursday. The state’s farmland price index decreased to 60.5 from 64.5, and its new hiring index dropped to 52.6 from 57.9.

The 10-state region’s overall reading in August fell to 50.0 from 55.6 in July, dropping to growth neutral after four straight months above growth-neutral readings.

“This is the fifth consecutive month that the overall [Rural Mainstreet Index] has moved at or above growth neutral,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement. “However, I expect recent pullbacks in growth to push the Federal Reserve to forgo an interest rate increase at its next meetings on Sept. 19-20.”

The survey is a snapshot of the economy in 10 states that are dependent on agriculture and energy, and focuses on about 200 communities with an average population of 1,300.

Bankers were asked to assess the financial conditions for the farming economy one year from now, and only 14.8% expect a stronger farm economy one year out, while 48.2% expect a weaker economy 12 months out.

In other regional findings from the report:

  • The farmland price index dropped to 60.0 from 64.6 in July.
  • The farm equipment sales index fell to 46.0 from 50.0 the month prior.
  • The loan volume index dipped to 75.0 from 75.9 in July, the checking deposit index decreased to 30.8 from 32.7, and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments dropped to 69.2 from 71.2.
  • The new hiring index for August fell to 51.9 from 59.3 in July. Over the past 12 months, the Rural Mainstreet Economy has expanded jobs by 2.8% compared to 2.0% for urban areas of the same 10 states.
  • The business confidence index dropped to 38.9 from 44.4.
  • The home sales index rose to 59.3 from July’s 55.8. Goss said despite higher mortgage rates, an increase in the housing inventory boosted sales across the region.
  • The retail sales index decreased to 51.9 from 59.6 in July.
  • The confidence index fell to 38.9 from 44.4.

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