In recent months, I have been interviewed several times about the impact of tariff increases. In preparing for those conversations, I turned to business leaders across industries. Almost unanimously, they described the challenge of operating in an environment thick with uncertainty. Some said they were pausing big decisions. Others engaged in elaborate scenario planning. A few were making bold bets, seizing the moment as an opportunity. Their approaches varied depending on industry dynamics, regulatory pressures, company health and the personalities of their leadership teams and boards. But a common theme ran through every conversation: the question of balance.

“As a leader, how do you balance the need to adapt strategy with the discipline to stay the course when facing uncertainty?” one executive asked. It is a question without easy answers, but one that defines leadership today.

The weight of uncertainty

As Harvard Business Review editors recently put it in an HBR Executive Live conversation, “If it feels like leadership is getting harder, that’s because it is.” Leaders must contend with rapid technological change, geopolitical turbulence and relentless news cycles. In a conversation with HBR’s Adi Ignatius, Rasmus Hougaard, a leadership expert and author of “More Human: How the Power of AI Can Transform the Way You Lead,” emphasizes that the issue is not whether uncertainty exists, as it always has, but how leaders choose to relate to it. “We can’t control what’s happening,” he explains, “but we can control how we respond to it.”

That insight highlights the crucial point that uncertainty is not just an external condition but also an internal experience. Leaders who can calm their own minds, manage their emotions and resist the temptation to react out of fear will be better positioned to guide their organizations with clarity.

Strategic responses: Pause, plan, or push forward

Different contexts call for different responses. Harvard’s Ranjay Gulati has studied companies that navigated recessions successfully. His research, highlighted in a recent issue of HBR Executive Agenda, shows that about 9% of firms emerged stronger by playing both offense and defense, investing in new opportunities while also cutting costs. In other words, they neither froze nor recklessly charged ahead.

This duality, prudence coupled with boldness, captures the essence of strategy in uncertain times. Leaders must build resilience into their organizations while also creating options for growth. Sometimes that means diversifying supply chains, holding more cash or experimenting with modular business models as experts advised in “10 Strategies for Leading in Uncertain Times” in MIT Sloan Management Review. At other times, it means taking small steps to create optionality, as Gulati suggests, acting not because the future is clear but because action itself helps reveal the path.

Strengthening and adapting strategy

The dilemma for many leaders is whether to pivot or to hold steady. Too much change can scatter focus and erode trust, while too little can leave organizations flat-footed. The answer lies in strengthening core strategy while retaining flexibility at the edges.

Think of it as reinforcing the foundation while leaving room for adaptive extensions. A company might double down on its central mission while experimenting with adjacent markets or emerging technologies. Leaders should clarify medium-term priorities, for example the next three to six months, without overpromising long-term certainty. This gives teams stability while acknowledging that circumstances may change.

The human side of strategy

Uncertainty also amplifies the human dimension of leadership. Hougaard reminds us that emotions, fear, anxiety, even restlessness, carry signals we should not ignore. But leaders must learn to regulate rather than be ruled by them. “Courage,” as Nelson Mandela said in his autobiography “Long Walk to Freedom,” “is not the absence of fear but the triumph over it.”

Brave leadership is not about predicting the future but about cultivating awareness, wisdom and compassion, qualities AI cannot replicate. In practice, this means creating supportive networks, fostering honest communication and modeling calm resilience. Leaders who demonstrate discipline in self-management will inspire confidence in others, even when external signals are confusing.

There is no one-size-fits-all playbook for strategy in uncertain times. Some leaders will pause, others will pivot and some will seize bold opportunities. What matters is not finding the perfect answer but holding the tension between adaptability and discipline. As Gulati notes, success does not require a genetic predisposition toward courage. It requires building the capacity to act decisively even when the future is foggy.

In the end, strategy during uncertainty is less about eliminating risk than about shaping how we face it. Leaders who strengthen their core, experiment at the margins and manage themselves with clarity will not only survive uncertainty but also help their organizations thrive within it. 

I asked leaders their advice on balancing the need to adapt strategy with the discipline to stay the course when facing uncertainty.

Kavi Chawla, chief growth officer, PowerPollen Inc.

As a finance and strategy leader, I see the world in terms of risk and reward. When it comes to deciding when to adapt one’s strategy versus staying the course, I go through a three-step process:

Understand: I understand how the changes that are occurring will impact the organization’s performance.  

Analyze: I quantify and analyze how the changes will impact the organization’s performance across our KPIs.

Decide: Once I have run the analysis, I have a deep-dive discussion with the rest of the team. Having a diverse set of expertise, experience and knowledge bases examine the options helps to arrive at the best risk-return adjusted course of action. Making good decisions requires a strong organizational culture that enables well-informed, robust discussions with high levels of trust and mutual respect among the team.

Proctor Lureman, president and CEO, Broadlawns Medical Center 

I travel Fleur Drive every morning to work, where change is constant. I never know if it will be one lane, how long the construction will stretch or whether an alternate route will be better. Some uncertainties I manage, others I accept, but with discipline I always arrive at Broadlawns.

The same is true in health care, as in every industry. Our mission and values ground us and guide us forward with intent. We earn trust by ensuring every strategy shift is rooted in doing right by our patients, colleagues and community. Change should be desired and harnessed, not endured. Our role is to keep teams in the driver’s seat, so uncertainty becomes opportunity. With a resilient workforce grounded in purpose, we will thrive and ensure the community we serve is healthier and stronger for it.

Staying the course with adaptation produces success.

Marty Martin, president, Drake University

The key to leading through uncertainty is an unyielding focus on mission and values. Changing business, political and social dynamics rarely alter the fundamental mission or core values of an organization. Once the mission has been translated into strategy and then refined into essential goals, leaders can, and indeed must, adapt to changed circumstances to realize those goals. However, that adaptation must not come at the cost of compromising on mission or core values. These non-negotiables which define an organization’s true character must always remain constant and unwavering.

Blaire Massa, CEO, Ballet Des Moines

Change is constant, often unpredictable, and will continue to accelerate, particularly in light of generative AI and current political turmoil. If we accept that the course toward progress is never straight, leaders can embrace the curves in the road rather than seeing every deviation as a concession or failure. Strong leaders will cultivate courage and humility along this path, holding themselves accountable to institutional values and strategic goals rather than a preconceived route to success. Obstacles offer opportunities to engage your values, your mission and your employees as your compass, revisiting whenever necessary to course correct, ensure transparency and create an atmosphere of engagement and optimism.

Shannon Woods, chief legal and compliance officer, the Mutual Group

Uncertainty is the norm – not the exception– – especially in highly regulated industries. The secret? Stay rooted to your core purpose while remaining agile in execution. Strategy isn’t a rigid blueprint, but rather a framework that allows for recalibration without losing direction. Discipline comes from setting clear guardrails early and often, identifying what must never change, like compliance and ethics. Adaptation requires listening, learning and adjusting based on real-time feedback – without creating unease. 

 The best leaders embrace paradox: They pivot when needed, but never drift. They lead with humility, communicate with clarity and build cultures that see change not as chaos, but as opportunity.ν