There is a lot to be positive about in the economy, despite all the challenges businesses are facing, local leaders said Oct. 9 at the West Des Moines Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Forecast luncheon.

Katherine Harrington, president and CEO of the chamber, moderated the panel, which included: Eric White, vice president at Estes Construction; Alex Parker, director of legislative affairs at Eide Bailly; Samantha Mosser, president of Bankers Trust; and Todd Jablonski, executive managing director, chief information officer and global head of multi-asset and quant at Principal Asset Management.

To stay on top of economic changes, panelists suggested local business owners and officials:

• Stay flexible and positive.
• Identify business risks and develop contingency plans.
• Monitor mortgage rate changes and the housing market.
• Explore the opportunities available in this market, like lower building costs.
• AI is not in a bubble.

White said economic indicators Estes is watching include interest rates.

“We have a lot of clients that want to expand. They’re looking for loans,” he said. “We’re looking for capital for both business loans and commercial real estate.

Parker said tariff and labor force uncertainty outweigh any potential gains from tax policy in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

“People are still confused by what it [the bill] means,” he said.

Mosser said Bankers Trust is most closely watching unemployment rates and inflation. As of Oct. 13, the inflation rate sits at 2.92%. The national unemployment rate is 4.3%, while in Iowa it’s 3.8%.

“Consumers drive 70% of our GDP, so we want people employed and spending money,” she said.

Mosser also noted that while tariffs are making big headlines, tariffed goods are not as common as some people might think.

“One thing people don’t realize is only 14% of U.S. GDP is imported,” she said. “Really, 85% of our economy is driven locally.”

While personal incomes are up 5.1% for 2025, Mosser said she is watching how much health care costs will increase in 2026 and how that will affect consumer spending.

Jablonski said he’s positive about the economy going into 2026. The economy is somewhat buoyed by the stimulus packages passed by the Trump and Biden administrations during the past few years, he said.

“Typically, you have cuts when things are going bad. We’re getting cuts while you’re seeing a massive fiscal stimulus on the back of the Biden massive fiscal stimulus. In my mind, from a fiscal and a monetary perspective, you have an unusual set of tailwinds,” he said. “Jobs are down, spending is down and we’re more than ever reliant on the richest of Americans to keep driving those numbers higher.

“But look at the business side. Earnings are getting ramped up. You are starting to see earnings estimates being revised higher. You’re starting to see fatter margins. Expectations are for 6% sales growth next year and 14% earnings growth. That means the economy is moving. Costs are being cut, efficiencies are being found and I think there’s a way to muddle through. No, I’m not gangbusters, but I think there’s a way to muddle through, 2.5% maybe, that gets us to a position to resume a proper acceleration in 2026 and 2027.”

He noted that much of that growth will likely occur with larger corporations rather than small businesses.

When asked if AI is a fleeting trend, Jablonski, who is based in Seattle, said he sees firsthand how AI is here to stay.

“The city I live in has been transformed by mega cap technology,” he said of companies like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA and Tesla investing in AI. “The schools are full. The streets are full. Everything in Seattle is incredibly expensive. Housing prices are [high] because of those seven companies driving this AI boom.”

Between spending on data center construction and computer chip development, AI is driving the largest capital expenditure investment Jablonski has seen during his career, he said. AI first became popular during a time when people were also excited about blockchain and cryptocurrency, which have not sustained that initial high enthusiasm.

“[AI] is a real force. It is a very, very real event. All those dollars are being spent. For me, I’ve never seen companies bet so hard on a technology. I actually think it’s one of those things, whether you like it or not, it’s coming,” he said. “The spending is real. It’s worth playing with it. No matter who you are, what you do, your industry, your age, your background, I recommend you spend time engaging with AI engines so you can spot its output when it comes to you, so you kind of understand what other people are doing.”

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 1:40 p.m. on Oct. 15 to correct Alex Parker’s job title and to correct a quote from Samantha Mosser saying consumers are 70% of U.S. GDP.