The United States is expected to lose its top-notch AAA credit rating from at least one major rating agency, Reuters reported.

A small majority of economists – 30 out of 53 – surveyed by Reuters over the past two days said the country will lose the rating from one of the three big rating agencies: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch. Respondents saw a 20 percent chance of a new recession in the next year.

Economists still see the probability of an outright default on U.S. Treasury bonds as a remote 5 percent on median. A default would have much worse financial consequences than a downgrade.