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Commercial mortgage, construction loan delinquencies rise

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The delinquency rates for commercial mortgage and construction loans rose in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates by Foresight Analytics.

Construction lending delinquencies, including commercial and residential loans, were up to an estimated 19.5 percent in the third quarter from 19.2 percent in the second quarter, as declining property values and the unavailability of financing continue to plague the real estate market.

The overall outstanding loan balance declined in the third quarter, though some new loans are being originated on conservative terms, according to Foresight.

The total delinquency rate for commercial mortgages rose to an estimated 5.6 percent in the third quarter from 5.4 percent in the second quarter, which represents a reversal from the decline seen from the first quarter.

“These delinquency rates are still below the (first quarter) 2010 peak rates, and are likely to be the apex in delinquencies barring a return to recession,” said Matt Anderson, managing director of Foresight. “If the tepid economic recovery manages to heat up and real estate values rise, some of the pressure on commercial mortgages will also be relieved.”

The total delinquency rate in the commercial and industrial segment – loans made to businesses and typically separate from commercial mortgage lending – fell to 3.4 percent in the third quarter from 3.7 percent in the second quarter.

And though delinquencies are stabilizing, outstanding loans in the commercial and industrial sector have been declining since the third quarter of 2008, an indication that financing options remain limited.

Foresight, a division of Trepp LLC, released its preliminary estimates based on earnings reports and call report filings from a number of smaller banks. Final figures for the third quarter are expected to be released in late November.