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Rick Krause of Iowa Realty Commercial compiled the numbers on Central Iowa’s commercial real estate transactions for the first five months of 2008, and the results were gloomy. He found 41 transactions valued at about $34 million, compared with 59 deals valued at nearly $100 million in the same period in 2007.

“We’re not seeing the big deals we’ve seen in the past, partly because of the credit markets,” Krause said.

Central Iowa is hardly alone, of course. According to preliminary information compiled for the National Association of Realtors, “investment in commercial real estate during the first four months of 2008 was $48.2 billion, down 69.5 percent from $157.8 billion during the same period in 2007.”

However, not all brokerages have been affected equally.

Kevin Crowley, chief operating officer at Iowa Realty Commercial, said that he budgeted for a 5 percent increase in business this year, and “we’re ahead of our projections,” he said. “We’re optimistic it’s going be a good year.”

Linda Gibbs, who runs CB Richard Ellis/Hubbell Commercial’s Private Client Group with her husband, Tim Sharpe, said their transaction total so far this year is “almost equal to (the same period) last year, which is pretty surprising to a lot of people.”

“The novices are really out of the market today,” Gibbs said. However, “We’re seeing seasoned investors who understand the investment world.”

For brokers who are feeling the pain, the crucial question is: How long will it last?

Gibbs predicted that the market might stay sluggish for another six or even 12 months. “In the second half of 2009, things should start looking much better,” she said.

Krause said: “Because credit is becoming more difficult, when loans come due, a lot of owners will be under more pressure to sell as they have to refinance. It might become a buyer’s market for the first time in a long time.”