Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says rising interest rates, trade tensions and rising inflation might mean a downturn in the economy late next year or in 2020. The economy remains strong, he adds. “As the last recession showed us, it’s very hard to predict the timing, but the U.S. economy is definitely headed toward higher risk,” Goss said. The yield curve between short-term and long-term interest rate is 0.30 percent, the lowest since the last recession. “Since 1980, every U.S. recession has been preceded by a period in which short-term rates climbed above long-term rates, or the gap between the two rates approached zero,” Goss said. The trade wars also are a warning sign, he adds.