Hard to see Vista boosting Microsoft
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Dear Mr. Berko:
Please give me your opinions on Microsoft Corp. and LDK Solar. I would like to buy either 100 shares of Microsoft or 150 shares of LDK Solar.
N.W., Syracuse, N.Y.
Dear N.W.:
Microsoft’s Vista is an arrant abomination. Picture a black, foul-smelling and bloated whale carcass washing ashore and thousands of angry, yelling beachgoers trying to pull, push and tow it back to sea. That’s Vista! Frankly, the older Windows 95, Windows 96, Windows 97, Windows 98, etc. operating systems are superior to 2007 Windows Vista by orders of magnitude.
Darn near every year, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT-$18.89) designs a new operating system with more bells and whistles than a Christmas sleigh in a toy store. And every year they become more complicated, more cumbersome, more sensitive and more problem-prone. Holy Harry, even Windows XP is exponentially superior to Vista. But the MSFT Druids don’t seem to understand that old adage: “If it ain’t busted, don’t fix it.”
Several techies tell me that many computer buyers are eliminating Vista and downloading Windows XP, which can be purchased for $50, on their new laptops and PCs. Others are turning to Apple. The techies also tell me that though they loathe Windows Vista, MSFT’s new Windows 7 is even more problem-prone, certain to be a pain in the butt and certain to dampen revenues and profits. Vista is also a bummer overseas, where folks might not cotton to Windows 7, either. So it seems MSFT’s operating system business growth may have reached a point of diminishing returns. Most folks prefer a system that’s comfortable, uncomplicated, dependable and user-friendly. Stay away from MSFT, which for years has not been investor-friendly.
LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (LDK-$10.34) is a $1.42 billion revenue producer of multi-crystalline solar wafers used in the manufacture of solar cells and modules. LDK went public in June 2007 at $15 a share. In a couple of months, LDK zoomed to the mid-$70s, and fell to the mid-$50s in late 2008. LDK is home ported in Xingu City, China, and management’s over-glowing, overenthusiastic and overambitious projections made LDK a favorite “solar boom” issue. Many investors eagerly bought LKD shares, which were listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Those investors got suckered in the process because management’s glowing, enthusiastic and ambitious projections turned out to be mere dreams and promises.
Though I think the share price might have reached bottom, I still wouldn’t own the stock. I’m uncomfortable with Chinese products: faulty tires, tainted milk, contaminated foods, dangerous toys, blacklisted toothpaste, poison-coated cosmetics, spiked dog food and bad seafood, to name just a few.
Be mindful that Chinese culture and all the attendant virtues, hopes, aspirations and psychology that make up that culture are vastly different from ours. So, I would not be the least bit surprised if some of LDK’s products mimicked similar deficiencies. I’m not comfortable owning a company a half-world away that derives its success from a culture so unfamiliar to ours.
As an alternative you might consider MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR-$14.77), a $2.2 billion company that makes similar products and has a much better balance sheet and income statement than LDK. WFR is better diversified and has better science than LDK.
In 2008, WFR was trading in the low $80s. Even though global sales will plummet in 2009, management believes it will earn at least $2.40 a share. The company has no debt of which to speak, only 220 million shares are outstanding and it expects its net profit margins for 2009 to exceed 28 percent. It is a U.S. company trading at five times its expected 2009 earnings. I’m comfortable owning it at the current price.
Please address your financial questions to Malcolm Berko, P.O. Box 1416, Boca Raton, Fla. 33429 or e-mail him at malber@comcast.net. © 2009 Creators Syndicate Inc.