Iowa exports are down year over year, according to the latest Mid-America Business Conditions Index.

The Business Conditions Index, which ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, climbed to 50.5 from 49.4 in July for the region. In Iowa, the state’s Business Conditions Index for August increased to 45.8 from 43.7 in July.

The Iowa manufacturing sector exported $7.2 billion in goods for the first half of 2025, compared to $8.1 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 10.8% decline, the report said.

For Iowa in August, new orders were at 50.3, production or sales was at 48.6, delivery lead time was at 51.9, employment was at 38.4 and inventories were at 39.7.

Regionally, the August Business Conditions Index components were: New orders increased to 49.8 from 45.5 in July; the production index climbed to 53.4 from 49.0 in July; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies declined to 54.2 from July’s 57.8. Lower readings indicate faster deliveries and/or falling supply chain disruptions or delays.

“Creighton’s latest survey continues to reflect job losses across the region, accompanied by elevated wholesale inflation,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics, said in a press release. “Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports along with higher prices for imported goods.”

The index is based on monthly surveys of supply managers in nine Midwestern states reliant on agriculture, manufacturing and similar industries. Comments from supply managers in August included:

• “We are starting to see the impact of tariffs on our bottom line.”
• “Our layoffs have been self-inflicted due to a change in org structure.”
• “Grain prices have a direct impact on our market and are of concern as bumper crops will only push prices south and lower net farm income.”
• “Quotes for products that would have been valid for 30 days now expired in seven.”
• “It will be touch-and-go for the next year for this economy to adjust to the new policies, both domestic and globally.”

Employment: The regional August employment index increased slightly to a weak 45.6 from 45.4 in July, marking the fifth consecutive month below the growth-neutral threshold of 50.

“This sustained weakness reflects ongoing labor market challenges in the regional manufacturing sector,” Goss said.

About 15% of firms reported in August that hiring had risen from July, compared to 10% of businesses that indicated that their firm had begun layoffs. As reported by an August survey participant, “We have trouble filling positions because of the low unemployment (less than 2%) in our area.”

Wholesale prices: The August price gauge declined to 64.9 from 69.7 in July. “The regional inflation yardstick has moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moving higher at the wholesale level. However, due to slowing regional and U.S. economies, I expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 meetings,” Goss said.

“When asked about the impact of tariffs on prices for inputs purchased abroad, approximately four of five firms reported that tariffs were pushing import prices higher,” he said.

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the August Business Confidence Index, rose to a weak 47.4 from July’s 42.6.

“Concerns regarding tariffs and slowing business activity pushed supply managers’ expectations lower. Only one in 10 supply managers expect rising economic conditions for their firm over the next six months,” Goss said.

Inventories: The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, increased slightly to 49.3 from 49.1.

“Rapid expansions in inventories in the first quarter are now being offset by monthly pullbacks in buildups,” he said.

Trade: Recent uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade restrictions pushed new export orders lower for the last four months. New export orders stood at 39.5, up slightly from 38.3 in July. As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025, and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last six months. The August import index slumped to 35.9 from 36.3 in July.

U.S. tariffs appear to be negatively affecting exports as well as imports. According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy exported $46.5 billion in manufactured goods for the first half of 2025, compared to $49.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 5.7% decline.

In terms of export gainers for the first half of 2025, compared to 2024, North Dakota registered the top percentage gain with a 50.4% addition, and South Dakota recorded the largest percentage loss with a 19.1% reduction in the export of manufactured goods.   

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.