The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) decreased 0.4% to 105.2 in November 2023 from 105.6 in October. During the six-month span through November, the ILII decreased 1.4%, an annualized rate of -2.9%. The six-month diffusion index remained unchanged at 25.0 in November from October.

A six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0 are considered a signal of a coming contraction when seen together. The six-month diffusion index remained in contractionary signals for the 11th month in a row and the six-month annualized change showed contraction for the 13th month in a row.

The monthly diffusion index dropped to 12.5 in November from 25.0 in October. A diffusion index measures the proportion of components rising in a given time period. Components are assigned values based on how they increased or decreased over the time period and the assigned values for all the components are then added together.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.05% increase in November.

One of the eight components increased month over month in November: the Iowa Stock Market Index. Diesel fuel consumption, the agricultural futures profit index, the national yield spread, average weekly manufacturing hours, residential building permits, average weekly unemployment claims and the new orders index detracted from the ILII.

During November, 17 of the 28 Iowa-based or Iowa-concentrated publicly traded companies on the Iowa Stock Market Index gained value, and all 10 financial-sector companies increased. With nearly two-thirds of the stocks experiencing gains, the stock market index increased to 112.93 in November from 111.51 in October.

The new orders index remained unchanged in November from October at 46.6. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index has decreased to 49.3 from 49.4 in October.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims increased from 2,100 to 2,136. Unemployment claims were 15.96% above November 2022 claims, yet 23.03% below average historical claims for November.

In November, permits were 870, down from 954 last year. The 12-month moving average decreased to 885 in November from 892 in October. November permits were 8.8% below November 2022, and 11.26% below the monthly historical average.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours decreased to 39.40 in November from 39.44 in October. In November, average hours were 39.7, below the 40.2 hours in November 2022, and just under two hours below the historical monthly average.

The yield spread widened in November and remained in inversion territory (below 0) dropping to -1.02% from -0.80% in October. November is the 13th month in a row that the yield spread has been in inversion. The long-term rate decreased 30 basis points while the short-term rate decreased by 8 basis points.

The agricultural futures profits index saw expected profits decreases in both crop commodities and hogs in November. Cattle experienced expected profit increases. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 29.9% lower while soybean prices were 6.9% lower. The November crush margin for hogs decreased 0.8% from October while the crush margin for cattle increased 11.3%.

Diesel fuel consumption decreased 8.2% between November 2022 and November 2023. The 12-month moving average decreased to 64.88 million gallons in November from 65.45 million in October.

The full report is available online.