The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased 0.1% to 109.5 in September from 109.6 in August. The monthly diffusion index increased to 56.3 in September from 50.0 in August.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.21% increase in September, the 18th month of growth.

Four of the eight components increased month over month in September: the national yield spread, average manufacturing hours, average weekly unemployment claims, and the agricultural futures profit index. The new orders index, the Iowa Stock Market Index, residential building permits, and diesel fuel consumption detracted from the index.

The 12-month moving average of average unemployment claims decreased from 1,887 in August to 1,852 in September.

Unemployment claims were 26% below September 2021 claims and 51% below average historical claims for September.

In September, the agricultural futures profit index showed expected profit increases in both crop commodities and live cattle, and a decrease in expected live hog profits. New-crop corn prices were 11.5% higher compared with last year while soybean prices were 29.1% higher. The September crush margin for cattle increased 0.6% from August while the crush margin for hogs decreased 9.8%. The crush margin involves the market value of the animal minus its initial cost and the cost of feeding it.

The yield spread increased in September to 0.30% from 0.18% in August. September is the third month in a row since December 2020 that the yield spread has been below 1.0%. The long-term rate increased 62 basis points while the short-term rate increased 50 basis points.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours increased in September to 39.11 from a revised 39.08 in August. Average hours were 39.8, above the 39.4 hours in September 2021, and just over one and a half hours below the historical monthly average.

Diesel fuel consumption decreased 0.2% between September 2021 and September 2022. The 12-month moving average decreased to 68.00 million gallons in September from 68.02 million in August.

In September, permits were 1,174, down from 1,319 last year. The 12-month moving average, decreased to 1,113 in September from 1,126 in August. September 2022 permits were 11.0% below September 2021, and 4.8% below the monthly historical average.

During September 2022, only three of the 28 companies on the Iowa Stock Market Index gained value, and only one of the 10 financial-sector companies increased. With nearly all of the stocks experiencing losses, the stock market index decreased to 124.99 in September from a revised 129.75 in August.

The new orders index decreased sharply to 45.8 in September compared with 57.3 in August. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index also decreased, to 60.56 from 62.13 in September 2021.

The full report is available online.