The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased to 107.7 in April from 106.4 in March, according to the Iowa Department of Revenue. April marks the seventh month in a row that the index has not shown contractionary signals.

The overall index had decreased as much as 3% from March to June 2020 before gradually improving for nine of the next 10 months. The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.57% increase in April, the first month of positive growth since February 2020. During the six-month span through April, the Iowa Leading Indicators increased 4.1% (an annualized rate of 8.2%). The six-month diffusion index remained at 87.5% in April.

Seven of the eight component indicators (agricultural futures profits index, diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa Stock market index, the national yield spread, the new orders index, residential building permits and average weekly unemployment claims) increased more than 0.05% over the last half-year.

The agricultural futures profits index contributed 0.07 to the overall index, with both corn and soybeans expecting profit gains and both cattle and hogs expecting profit losses. Compared with last year, new crop corn prices were 52.4% higher, while soybean prices were 51.2% higher. The April crush margin for hogs decreased 5.8% from March, while the crush margin for cattle decreased 6.3%. The crush margin involves the market value of the animal minus its initial cost and the cost of feeding it.

Diesel fuel consumption increased 6.9% between April 2020 and April 2021. The 12-month moving average increased to 64.17 million gallons from 63.82 million in March, contributing 0.10 to the Leading Indicators Index value. Eighteen of the 31 companies on the Iowa stock market Index gained value, contributing 0.08 to the overall index value.

The new orders index rose to 79.7 in April, compared with 23.7 one year ago. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index increased to 70 from 65.4 in March, contributing 0.30 to the leading indicators. Residential building permits in April were 121.8% above April 2020, and 59.6% above the monthly historical average from 1998 to 2020.

Average weekly unemployment claims were 84.3% below April 2020 claims, yet 28.8% above average historical claims for April from 1988 to 2020.

The full Iowa Leading Indicators Index is available online.