Leading indicators suggest Iowa employment growth could stall
Leading indicators suggest Iowa employment growth could stall
The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased by 0.1 percent in September, following a 0.3 percent drop in August and a gain of 0.1 percent in July, according to a report released this morning by the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The monthly diffusion index remained at 50, reflecting a positive change in four of the index’s eight components for the month. The six-month annualized change in the index fell into negative territory (-0.5 percent) for the first time since November 2009. However, it remains above the -2.0 percent value that, when combined with a six-month diffusion index below 50, would signal a recession. The index’s recent moves suggest that Iowa employment growth may stall this winter.
The agricultural sector continued to show strength, led by additional price gains for corn and soybeans. Although livestock prices also rose, higher grain prices, and hence higher feed prices, continued to squeeze expected profits.
Among other positive indicators were unemployment insurance claims, which declined for the 23rd consecutive month in September, though they were still above historical averages.
The complete report is available at http://www.iowa.gov/tax/taxlaw/econindicators.html.
The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased by 0.1 percent in September, following a 0.3 percent drop in August and a gain of 0.1 percent in July, according to a report released this morning by the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The monthly diffusion index remained at 50, reflecting a positive change in four of the index’s eight components for the month. The six-month annualized change in the index fell into negative territory (-0.5 percent) for the first time since November 2009. However, it remains above the -2.0 percent value that, when combined with a six-month diffusion index below 50, would signal a recession. The index’s recent moves suggest that Iowa employment growth may stall this winter.
The agricultural sector continued to show strength, led by additional price gains for corn and soybeans. Although livestock prices also rose, higher grain prices, and hence higher feed prices, continued to squeeze expected profits.
Among other positive indicators were unemployment insurance claims, which declined for the 23rd consecutive month in September, though they were still above historical averages.
The complete report is available at http://www.iowa.gov/tax/taxlaw/econindicators.html.
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