In March 1968, “ABC’s Wide World of Sports” first broadcast the International Cliff Diving Championships from Acapulco. I was captivated as each diver climbed to a height 130 feet above an inlet only 12 feet wide and at best 21 feet deep, and threw himself headlong off the cliff.

It never occurred to me that one day I – along with every other American – would potentially become an unwilling participant in a different form of cliff diving. But as we approach year’s end, we are edging toward the precipice of what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has dubbed the “fiscal cliff.”

That term refers to a combination of scheduled tax increases and spending reductions that all kick in on Jan. 1, 2013, and are projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to total some $850 billion in calendar 2013. The analogy to going over a cliff comes from the massive drop in fiscal support for the economy, and from the fact that unless Washington diverts us from our present course, we are headed over the edge. Some of the more significant components of the fiscal cliff are the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts, the end of limitations on the reach of the alternative minimum tax, and termination of both the payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits.

The fiscal cliff matters for two reasons. First, according to the CBO, if Congress fails to act, the annual federal tax burden on the average family of four will increase by a whopping $2,200 next year. Second, the U.S. economy is still very weak, and contracting the federal budget by $850 billion could tip the nation into a new recession. According to the CBO, if current fiscal policy continues, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could grow at a 4.4 percent rate in 2013. If we jump off the fiscal cliff, however, GDP growth will slow by nearly 4 percent, and the U.S. will lose 2 million jobs.

It is understandable then that all eyes are on the cliff. In our view, however, Congress is unlikely to lead (throw?) us off the cliff. Say what you will about partisan gridlock, Congress regularly averts crises at the last minute, and we expect our lawmakers will do so again, although it may well take them until January 2013 to put the pieces together.

But avoiding a foolhardy leap off the cliff doesn’t solve the bigger issue. The U.S. stands atop a $16 trillion mountain of federal debt. We don’t have to jump, but we still need to get down. Fiscal restraint must begin soon. We cannot afford for our federal debt to continue to be more than 70 percent of GDP. We cannot afford to have a growing portion of our savings going to finance government debt rather than to investing in factories and new technologies.

Even assuming we avoid the cliff, we expect that 2013 will be the year when fiscal austerity measures begin in earnest in the U.S., regardless of the outcome of the election. A recent Goldman Sachs report forecast that fiscal policy will likely shave 1.5 percentage points or more from GDP growth in 2013. And that is a foreshadowing of austerity measures to come, each of which will be a drag on economic growth.

Sooner or later, we are going over the cliff. How much fiscal restraint comes in 2013 is uncertain. Jumping off the cliff, in our view, is too much. Lingering on the mountaintop by delaying all austerity measures further is too little. Our best hope of climbing down safely is to begin the journey now lest events overtake us. Our trip may not make “Wide World of Sports,” but what we lose in drama, we can make up for in a more certain and less painful journey.

End Note: The April 1961 premiere episode of “Wide World of Sports” featured coverage of the Drake Relays. Go Bulldogs!