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Commercial construction activity will drop 11 percent nationwide this year and another 5 percent in 2010, according to a building forecast from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Based on estimates from McGraw-Hill Construction, Moodys Economy.com, Global Insight Inc., FMI Corp. and Reed Business Information, the AIA said construction of offices, retail and hotels could drop 25 to 35 percent over the next two years.

The forecast is in line with earlier predictions from architects across the country who made their assessments based on billings to clients. Those billings began to decline early in 2008, and a drop in nonresidential construction activity followed four to five months later, the AIA said.

The AIA report took note of these three recessions in nonresidential construction since the 1980s:

• The early 1980s recession began in the first quarter of 1980 and lasted through the fourth quarter of 1982, with construction activity dropping by nearly 28 percent;

• The early 1990s recession began in the third quarter of 1989 and ended in the first quarter of 1993, with construction activity falling 31 percent; and

• The early 2000s recession began in the first quarter of 2000 and lasted through the first quarter of 2004, with construction dropping 25 percent.

The AIA said a proposed federal economic stimulus package could reduce the recession’s impact.